For Thursday, September 11, I'm on 4 MLB home run props: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kyle Manzardo, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Pete Alonso.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Thursday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Thursday, September 11
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:07 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 11
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+340)
vs Astros (SP: RHP Cristian Javier)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has shown a ton of power this season, with a career-high hard-hit rate, but he's struggled to get the ball up in the air.
This matchup is fantastic for Guerrero, as Cristian Javier owns a massive 60.5% fly-ball rate against righties. This ballpark is a plus, and given the great matchup, I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+459)
vs Tigers (SP: LHP Tyler Holton)
I'm going hard on the Yankees, as it's a good spot and these odds are way too high. The Tigers look like they will open the game with Tyler Holton, and then Sawyer Gipson-Long will come in for long relief. Holton has been an average matchup for lefty power this season and a massive plus matchup for righty power. Gipson-Long has been absolutely crushed by righty power this season and in his career. He has allowed below-average homers to lefties, but is due for some regression and grades out as a great matchup for lefty power.
This ballpark is a plus, and the weather should be neutral. I have the true odds here around +375, making this a great bet.
Kyle Manzardo (+520)
vs Royals (SP: RHP Stephen Kolek)
Kyle Manzardo has had a good season, and this matchup is great. Stephen Kolek has been a decent overall pitcher, but he's struggled heavily with lefty power, allowing a 1.36 HR/9, despite playing in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league. This ballpark is good for lefty power, and the weather should be neutral for hitting.
I have the true odds here around +450, making this a great bet.
Pete Alonso (+350)
at Phillies (SP: LHP David Peterson)
Pete Alonso is in a plus spot, and these odds aren't nearly high enough. Opposing pitcher Jesus Luzardo has been good this season, but has been worse as the season has gone on, and has been a plus matchup for righty power since the All-Star Break.
Alonso is one of the best home-run hitters in the league, and I have the true odds here under +300, making this a great bet.
