MLB Home Run Props Today | Ryan McMahon, Yordan Alvarez, More (Wednesday, September 27)

Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling, and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.

Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.

That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.

The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.

It's important to bet responsibly and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.

But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +13551 odds.

Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.

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I wrote on Friday how Patrick Corbin is auto-fade material — we cashed with Austin Riley in his first at-bat — and Wednesday night presents itself as yet another opportunity against an Orioles team looking to clinch the American League East.

Corbin is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. His xERA of 6.09 ranks in the bottom 3% of all pitchers, and for the second straight season his xBA sits above .300. For the sixth straight season his strikeout rate has dropped — it now sits at a measly 15.9% — and his home run rate has risen above 1.6.

While Ryan Mountcastle sadly won’t be active for this game, there are plenty of Orioles who should find success against the southpaw. Corbin has given up 32 home runs in 31 starts and 2+ on 11 separate occasions (35.5%).

That brings me to Adley Rutschman, who is on fire at the plate of late. Despite not hitting a home run, over the last seven days, Rutschman has five doubles and a 1.302 OPS. He actually has a higher slugging percentage against southpaws — Rutschman is a switch hitter — with a 33% extra base hit rate.

He is one of the hardest outs to get in this Orioles lineup and ranks third on the team in wRC+ (144). His ISO falls outside the top handful, but he does have the second-most home runs against lefties — No. 1 is Mountcastle.

Corbin is a home run liability, and the Nationals as a whole have a below-average bullpen. Over the last 14 days, they are bottom 10 in HR/9 (1.33) and xFIP (4.81). 

Back Rutschman as the Orioles continue their dominance atop the AL East. He is +825 to hit a HR at bet365.

There’s a lot to love about Emmet Sheehan, and he put that on display in his last start against the Giants. The rookie threw 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball, striking out nine without allowing a hit.

He lost all command in that fifth inning, but it showed improvement from his first big league stint. While Sheehan ranks inside the top 1% of all pitchers in xBA (.183), Coors Field sets up to be a high-scoring game.

Pitchers normally struggle at Coors because of the altitude — their pitches don’t have as much movement — and that could pose an issue for Sheehan. Not only does he run into command issues (his BB% is 11.6), but he has a 9.7 barrel% and ranks inside the bottom 10% of pitchers in ground ball rate.

More flyballs and a high barrel rate bodes well for Rockies hitters, and that’s why I’m targeting Ryan McMahon here. While lefties do hit just .196 against Sheehan, six of the 19 hits have left the park, and another three have gone for extra bases.

McMahon is a typical left-handed hitter. He struggles against southpaws but sees a significant increase in production against righties. It’s he and Nolan Jones atop the Rockies leaderboards vs. RHP, with McMahon second in wRC+ (110) and ISO (.225).

When looking at his Fangraphs rolling fly ball data, we have seen a big jump of late. McMahon is an underrated hitter, ranking inside the top 7% of all hitters in sweet-spot% (39.3) and ranking above average in barrel% (11.5), chase rate and walks.

This is a great matchup for McMahon. He can be selective against a typically wild Sheehan, waiting for the right pitch to jump all over. Sharps have been all over the total here — it’s jumped from 11.5 to 12 — and the wind is blowing out at Coors.

I’m surprised to see McMahon’s home run price open at +450 at FanDuel. While it’s not widely available yet, I would wait for bet365 to release their odds before pulling the trigger.

Bryce Miller is on the mound, and like Corbin, I also faded him on Friday and we cashed with a first-inning Corey Seager home run. There’s negative home run regression coming for Miller and should continue against a powerful Astros lineup.

Miller’s underlying metrics are concerning. His xERA is just shy of 5 and his barrel% of 10.8 is among the bottom 10% of all pitchers. Take a look at his numbers. His hard-hit rate sits at 41.7%, and his ground ball rate is just 33.6%.

The home runs have just been lacking. Miller has a concerningly high barrel and hard-hit rate given the fact most balls put into play are in the air, yet he’s given up just 16 home runs this season. The Rangers were able to tag him for a pair, and I expect the Astros to find success as well on Wednesday night.

Also, for reference, Miller pitched just shy of 130 innings in the minors last season. He has thrown nearly 150 in 2023, which could lead to extra fatigue and a reason behind a couple of his struggles (15 2/3 innings of 11-run ball over his last three starts).

That brings me to Yordan Alvarez, who hit a home run in the series opener against the Astros and has a great matchup against Miller tonight. He doesn’t walk many batters — a sub-5% walk rate — and attacks the zone, a plus for Alvarez.

A high hard hit and barrel rate? That sounds like music to Alvarez’s ears. He is one of the most dominant and powerful hitters in baseball, ranking in the top 1% of all hitters in barrel rate (17.9%) and inside the top 5% in both hard-hit rate (52.1%) and xSLG (.624).

Alvarez is far and away the best hitter against right-handed pitching, both in wRC+ (190) and ISO (.344), and over the last 30 days, we have seen him crush nine home runs and boast a 1.246 OPS. Over 50% of his hits have gone for extra bases.

I just think this is a smash spot for Alvarez as the Astros find themselves in a must-win game here. They’re just a half-game up on Seattle with the tiebreaker in the Mariners favor. Picking up a win here would be huge, and Alvarez has the best matchup of all Astros. 

He is +250 to hit a HR at FanDuel.

DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, September 27

• Adley Rutschman (+825)
• Ryan McMahon (+450)
• Yordan Alvarez (+250)

If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,355.10.