The 2026 Major League Baseball is entering the most crucial stretch of the summer, and traders at Kalshi are speculating over which manager will be a victim of bad results. As prominent figures like Carlos Mendoza and Rob Thomson are removed from their positions, the “Pro Baseball: Managers Out” contract is drawing increased interest.
The premise of the market is simple but brutal: Which designated Major League Baseball manager will leave or announce they will leave their position before December 1, 2026?
Which Manager Will be Fired Next?
The contract is not structured as an outright pool of which managers will get fired. Instead, it has independent binary markets for specific managers currently under pressure, allowing traders to build a highly customized prediction.
Right now, the main candidate to be dismissed from his charge is Chicago Cubs’ Craig Counsell, with nearly 70% of implied chances. He is closely followed by Dan Wilson, the current manager of the Seattle Mariners, whose continuation is subject of intense debate due to the team’s recent struggles.
Three managers currently find themselves in a coin-flip scenario: Joey Espada of the Houston Astros, Kurt Suzuki of the Los Angeles Angels, and Mark Kotsay of the Athletics. Meanwhile, contracts for Carlos Mendoza, Rob Thomson, and Alex Cora have already been resolved to Yes.
The Schaeffer Case
The Colorado Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer also ranks high on the trading board with more than 40% chances of being dismissed. While his implied probability doesn't quite match that of Craig Counsell’s, the Colorado coach has been questioned.
Schaeffer’s Yes contract offers an interesting opportunity. The coach's future seems uncertain and the potential payout is considerable. Following the dismissal of Bud Black during a historically poor season for the franchise, Warren Schaeffer stepped in as the interim manager for the Colorado Rockies. By November 2025, he transitioned from third-base coach to the official manager role.
The bad results continued, although the Rockies received a breakout season from All-Star catcher Hunter Goodman. Also, the team drafted Ethan Holliday with the No. 4 pick this summer. It remains to be seen if Schaeffer is able to turn around the poor situation of the Colorado Rockies.
Given the high liquidity of prediction markets, traders don't have to hold onto those shares until the settlement date. A few bad results could spike the price of the Yes stock, opening a profitable exit even if he continues to be the Colorado Rockies’ manager.
What to Watch For
Front offices are historically slow to move during the summer months due to remaining contract liabilities and the lack of viable replacements. Angry fans often buy Yes shares impulsively after a manager gets ejected from a game or blows a bullpen decision, assuming an immediate dismissal is imminent. That opens a window to buy No stock at a discount.
Those shares might considerably appreciate as front offices delay the structural changes. Because the final deadline extends all the way to December 1, the contract captures not just mid-season sackings, but also the immediate post-season terminations that take place right after the conclusion of the World Series.
Unlike standard sports wagers that require a team to win a game, this contract relies entirely on corporate execution, clubhouse sentiment, and media narrative loops. Separating the rumors from the information is a key factor in choosing wisely.
