MLB NRFI Odds, Picks: Aces Corbin Burnes, Carlos Rodon Worth the Price in Brewers vs. Giants (Thursday, July 14)

Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.

Brewers vs. Giants — No Runs First Inning (-170)

On Thursday, we will travel west to find value in a NRFI between the Brewers and the Giants.

The Brewers will start their ace, Corbin Burnes, who has already cemented himself as an NRFI Hall of Famer.

Since 2021, Burnes is 39-7 to the NRFI, ranking him among the best in the MLB. His 2022 NRFI campaign has been just as successful with a league-leading 15-2 NRFI record.

In 64 first-inning batters faced, Burnes has only issued four walks and allowed five hits, holding his opponents to a .183 average.

Here is how Burnes has done against these Giants hitters:

• Lamont Wade Jr: 1-for-5
• Mike Yastrzemski: 0-for-5
• Wilmer Flores: 0-for-5
• Brandon Crawford: 1-for-11
• Joc Pederson: 4-for-10

It should be noted that both Wade and Crawford are hitting under .130 in their last seven days.

In the month of July, the Giants rank 26th in first-inning batting average with a lousy .178 average in 54 plate appearances.

The Giants will counter with their ace, Carlos Rodon, who comes into today right behind Burnes with a 14-2 NRFI record with six of those wins coming at home.

In 69 first-inning batters faced, Rodon has only allowed 12 hits, good for a .188 first-inning average against.

Here is how these Brewers hitters have done in the past against Rodon:

• Willy Adames: 3-for-7
• Kolten Wong: 1-for-8
• Christian Yelich: 1-for-7
• Luis Urias: 0-for-1
• Hunter Renfroe: 0-for-2

Some Brewers hitters are in a major slump and hitting well below their averages. Rowdy Tellez is one of them, going 2-for-21 in this past week. He is projected to bat fourth today.

The Brewers are struggling offensively in July, particularly in the first inning, going 5-for-37 and ranking 28th in MLB in average.

Both teams collectively NRFI better than 71% of the time. The Giants are 8-2 in their last 10 games and the Brewers are right behind them at 7-3 in their last 10 games.

Bet on these two offenses to remain in their July first-inning slumps tonight. Take the NRFI between the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Francisco Giants. The line is understandably juiced, but the best value you can find as of this writing is at DraftKings at -170.

As always, six outs to glory…