MLB NRFI Odds, Pick & Preview: Tylor Megill, Aaron Ashby Should Keep First Inning Scoreless in Brewers vs. Mets (Thursday, June 16)

MLB NRFI Odds, Pick & Preview: Tylor Megill, Aaron Ashby Should Keep First Inning Scoreless in Brewers vs. Mets (Thursday, June 16) article feature image

Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Tylor Megill #38 of the New York Mets.

  • The Mets host the Brewers on Thursday night at Citi Field.
  • Our NRFI analyst thinks the starting pitchers have an edge with Ashby and Megill on the mound.
  • Check out his picks and analysis below.

Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.

Brewers vs. Mets — No Runs First Inning (-105)

MatchupBrewers (Ashby) vs. Mets (Megill)
First Pitch7:10 p.m. ET
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On Thursday, we head to Citi Field to take the NRFI between two National League teams — the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets.

The Brewers' young pitcher Aaron Ashby is shaping up to be a great NRFI pitcher. To start his career, he is 9-2 to the NRFI and has a respectable 7-1 road NRFI record. Against 30 first-inning batters, he has only surrendered six hits and four walks.

Ashby is predominantly a slider pitcher as he has thrown it 274 times. Teams have slashed for a .262 average against it, but he should regress to the mean with only a .182 xBA (Expected Batting Average) against him. This also correlates with his 3.92 ERA, which is similarly due for positive regression with an xERA (Expected Earned Run Average) of 2.85 — a significant drop of over a full run per nine innings.

He has only faced Mets hitters Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, and he struck out both in those matchups. It should be noted for the Mets that Francisco Lindor and Eduardo Escobar are both hitting below .200 in the last week.

On the other side, Tylor Megill gets the start for the Mets and is 7-1 to the NRFI in 2022, making him 18-8 since 2021. Against 31 first-inning batters, Megill is holding hitters to a .207 average, but he hasn't issued a single first-inning walk all season.

Megill has had success in the past against these Brewers batters:

  • Willy Adames: 2-for-5
  • Christian Yelich: 1-for-3
  • Luis Urias: 0-for-3
  • Keston Hiura: 0-for-2

And several key Brewers hitters come in struggling over the last week with Luis Urias, Rowdy Tellez, and Hunter Renfroe all respectively averaging .143, .118, and .143 over that span. Since June began, the first-inning woes for the Brewers have become troublesome. Of their 57 first-inning batters, only nine have gotten a hit, which is good for a .184 average and 24th in the MLB.

Look for these 6-1 and 7-1 NRFI pitcher’s to continue their 2022 campaigns and collectively shut down the opposing offenses in the first inning. Take the NRFI between the Brewers and the Mets.

As always, six outs to glory…

For all of Shayne Trail's favorite NRFI/YRFI bets, follow him in the Action Network app.

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