We went 1-2 on Tuesday with a couple of bigger plus-money swings that didn't work out. Let's get back in the win column on Wednesday.
I have three more picks today, including one from our favorite NRFI pitcher.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — June 25, 2025
Pirates vs. Brewers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
My strategy of blindly betting Paul Skenes NRFIs at nearly any price has been one of the few bright spots this year.
He hasn't allowed a first inning (or first time through the order) run all season, and the last time the Pirates scored in the first inning in one of his starts was May 1 against the Cubs.
That means nine straight NRFIs have cashed when he's the starting pitcher.
He's facing the dynamic rookie Jacob Misiorowski today. The 6-foot-7 righty has a 1.64 ERA in his first two big league starts, and he didn't even give up a hit until facing a batter for the third time in either of those appearances.
That's obviously not going to be sustainable, but against a bad Pirates offense, it's probably enough to get through at least one inning. We'll get burned by one of these eventually, but it's fairly unlikely to be today.
Cubs vs. Cardinals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs. Erick Fedde (STL)
Most of this pick is driven by the off-market line at FanDuel.
The YRFI in this game is -115 or worse everywhere else, making this a relatively significant price difference, especially in a game where the total has climbed to 9.0 and will likely continue to rise.
That's partially due to more extreme hitting weather in St. Louis, with Weather Edge showing an 18% boost to scoring and 17% boost to home runs.
Plus, we've got two strong lineups at the top, particularly the visiting Cubs, who have two top-four hitters with wRC+ marks of 140 or higher.
Both starters have solid ERAs this season but much worse underlying numbers, making this a solid spot for some regression.
Marlins vs. Giants NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs. Logan Webb (SF)
While he's not quite Paul Skenes, Logan Webb has a 2.22 xFIP the first time through the order,and is taking on a Marlins team that ranks 25th in wRC+ against righties on the season.
Plus, he's at home, and Oracle Park has been one of the two or three best pitchers' parks in baseball.
The Giants' side of the equation is slightly more of a risk, as they've been an average team against right-handed pitching this year and recently added Rafael Devers to their lineup.
However, Cabrera has a 2.73 ERA and 2.87 xFIP his first time through the order, and he gets a fairly significant boost going away from his hitter-friendly home environment.
If you don't want to lay the big juice, this would be a solid parlay option with the Skenes NRFI above.
