MLB Betting Odds, Prediction & Pick: Expect Little Early Scoring in Brewers vs. Padres (April 20)
Ralph Freso/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes.
- Corbin Burnes looks to continue his stellar start to 2021 on Tuesday night against the Padres.
- Chris Paddack will start for San Diego, and there's reason to believe he's due for a bounce-back campaign.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down the matchup and where he sees betting value in San Diego.
Brewers vs. Padres Odds
|Time||Tuesday, 10:10 p.m. ET|
Two of the best young pitchers in the National League square off on Tuesday night in San Diego, where Corbin Burnes starts opposite Chris Paddack.
Milwaukee is off to a solid start to the season and are right on the Reds’ heels for first place in the National League Central. However, the Brewers are coming off losing two of three games against the lowly Pirates over the weekend, so they will be looking to rebound on Tuesday night after the season opener on Monday.
The Padres are coming off a highly emotional series against the Dodgers that saw them lose two of three. With the Dodgers already having a big lead in the NL West, the Padres can’t afford to fall farther behind this early in the season. They’ll hope their No. 3 starter Paddack can match Burnes tonight and keep the bullpen fresh.
Milwaukee has been struggling to start the season offensively. They entered Monday night near the bottom of MLB with a .295 wOBA and 80 wRC+. To make matters worse, Christian Yelich recently went on the 10-day injured list with a back injury.
MLB INJURY ALERT: Brewers OF Christian Yelich (back) has been placed on the 10-day injured list. pic.twitter.com/6IQdjU4dHX
— DK Nation (@dklive) April 17, 2021
The Brewers were one of the worst lineups against right-handed pitching last season, ranking 27th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+. They also struggled against every pitch type in 2020, including fastballs, against which they were 24th in MLB. Paddack really struggled with his fastball last season, so the Brewers lineup will need to somehow take advantage of that pitch tonight.
San Diego Padres
Given the talent in the Padres’ lineup, they are off to a slow start to begin the season. San Diego only had a .322 wOBA and 104 wRC+ entering Monday’s game, both of which are average by MLB standards. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been in and out of the lineup due to injury and is off to a terrible start, hitting only .125 coming into the series.
The Padres have a big task at hand trying to get to Burnes. The only pitch San Diego struggled against last season were cutters, which just happens to be the pitch Burnes has gone to the most through his first three starts of 2021. I expect the Padres to see a heavy dose of them tonight.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Corbin Burnes vs. Chris Paddack
2021 ZIPS Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)
Brewers Starting Pitcher
Corbin Burnes, RHP
2020 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Last season, Burnes was completely unhittable, posting a 1.77 ERA and 2.89 xFIP. He’s also a strikeout machine, racking up a crazy 13.34 K/9, which ranked third in MLB behind only Shane Bieber and Jacob deGrom.
Burnes has continued that into 2021, as he’s only given up four hits and one run through his first three starts, while also racking up 30 strikeouts.
The reason Burnes is so effective is because of his secondary pitches. Last season all four collectively allowed a .120 average to opponents, along with each of them producing a whiff rate better than 30%. Burnes has gone to his cutter more than any other pitch through his first three starts this season and likely will need to use it a lot tonight, since that is the only pitch the Padres struggled against last season.
Padres Starting Pitcher
Chris Paddack, RHP
2020 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Paddack really didn’t live up to expectations in 2020. However, he was pretty unlucky, as he posted a 4.73 ERA, but his xFIP is almost a full run lower at 3.77. His main issue last season was giving up the long ball, as he surrendered 14 home runs in only 59 innings. Through his first three starts of 2021, the main issue is his control, as he already has a BB/9 rate over four.
Paddack struggled with his fastball in 2020, allowing a .309 average to opponents. That is a big issue since he throws his fastball over 58% of the time. Through his first three starts this season, Paddack is throwing his fastball over 65% of the time now, but has been more effective with it allowing only a .241 batting average against it.
Milwaukee struggled against everything last season so if Paddack is effective with his fastball, he should be able to shut down a Yelich-less Brewers lineup.
Last season, the Brewers led MLB in xFIP as a unit at 3.72 when no other team recorded an xFIP below 4.00. Milwaukee’s relief corps also led MLB in hard-hit percentage allowed mainly because they have two of the best relievers in all of baseball. Devin Williams and Josh Hader are about as solid of an eighth-ninth inning combination that you’ll find in baseball today.
The Padres counter with an elite bullpen of their own that was fifth in xFIP last season. With additions like Mark Melancon and Keone Kela, their bullpen will once again be near the top of MLB. In fact, they’ve been one of the best bullpens to begin the season, ranking first in xFIP and third in K%.
Without Yelich, the Brewers’ lineup is pretty exposed, especially when struggle against righties and fastballs, which is Paddack’s main pitch he throws over 65% of the time. On the flip side, Corbin Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons and should be able to shut down the talented Padres lineup with his cutter.
Since I only have 3.18 runs projected for the first five innings, I think there is some value on Under 3.5 runs at -118 odds.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 3.5 runs (-118)