MLB Odds, Picks, Expert Predictions: Blue Jays vs. Rays Betting Preview (September 25)

MLB Odds, Picks, Expert Predictions: Blue Jays vs. Rays Betting Preview (September 25) article feature image

Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

  • The Rays host the Blue Jays in a crucial game with wild card implications.
  • Both pitchers have fared well this season, but our expert is targeting the total.
  • Tony Sartori previews the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Blue Jays vs. Rays Odds

Blue Jays Odds+122
Rays Odds-144
Over/Under6.5 (-112/-108)
Time1:10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the fourth and final game of this massive AL East intradivisional series with the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Toronto Blue Jays. With these two clubs neck-and-neck in the wild card race, this should be a great game with a lot on the line.

Will the Rays take care of business at home, or can the Blue Jays pull off the upset as a short road underdog?

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Toronto Blue Jays: Is Stripling In Line To Struggle?

Taking the mound for Toronto is right-hander Ross Stripling. Through 30 appearances this season, Stripling is 8-4 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP.

While those are strong numbers, there are a couple of reasons to expect a poorer outing from the right-hander. First of all, Stripling has struggled against Tampa Bay.

Over his past four outings against the Rays, Stripling is 1-3 with a 7.31 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Additionally, he is coming off a terrible performance against the Phillies.

In that start, Stripling allowed five runs on nine hits through four innings. However, Stripling should get a decent amount of run support as the Blue Jays are taking on lefty Shane McClanahan.

Since August 1, Toronto ranks 11th in the league in SLG, 11th in OPS, 11th in wOBA and 12th in hard-hit percentage when facing left-handed pitching.

Tampa Bay Rays: Can McClanahan Silence Jays?

Shane McClanahan is taking the mound for Tampa Bay. Through 26 starts this season, McClanahan is 12-6 with a 2.36 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP.

While he has been tremendous all season, this could be a tough game considering Toronto's strong numbers against left-handers. Additionally, McClanahan is coming off one of his worst starts of the season.

In that outing, he surrendered five runs on five hits through four innings. Since returning from injury on September 15, McClanahan has yet to go deeper than five innings.

However, he should get plenty of run support in this game as the Rays are going against right-hander Ross Stripling. Since August 1, Tampa Bay ranks in the top half of the league in BA, OPS, wOBA and hard-hit percentage when facing right-handed pitching.

Across 132 career plate appearances against Stripling, this current Rays roster boasts a .280 BA, .517 SLG, and .364 wOBA.

Blue Jays-Rays Pick

We are getting tremendous value in the F5 total because of the pitching matchup. Yes, Stripling has had a good season.

Yes, McClanahan is one of the best pitchers in baseball. However, they are also going against two extremely strong lineups.

The Rays have hit extremely well against Stripling and McClanahan has shown he can surrender some early runs. The reason I like the F5 total instead of the game total is that both bullpens are strong and I see more value in going against the big names starting the game.

The F5 innings have seen four or more runs scored in each of Stripling's past six games and in each of McClanahan's past three.

Pick: Blue Jays/Rays F5 Over 3.5 (+118) | Play down to (+100)

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