Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, August 21.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Baltimore Orioles ML (-122)
- Reds/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 Total Runs (+108)
- J.T Ginn Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-124)
- Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 Walks (+120)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Pick
The Rays are 15 1/2 games ahead of the Orioles, yet Baltimore is rightfully favored in today's matchup.
Tampa Bay's starter Freddy Peralta is still trying to find his form on his third team in this calendar year. Peralta was traded from the Mets to the Rays before the deadline, but their notoriously savvy pitching lab has not fixed him.
Two of Peralta's starts with the Rays have come in brutal environments (Coors Field and Sacramento), but his most recent outing was at home.
Peralta may make the necessary tweak between his most recent start and today, though that may be difficult against an Orioles offense he just faced last week.
Trevor Rogers' most recent start is also against his opponent for today. However, he is pitching extremely well in recent months. Rogers owns a 2.33 ERA, backed by a 3.22 xERA and a 3.58 xFIP since June 14.
Rogers is pitching slightly worse at home than on the road, but he gets to face a Rays' offense that ranks sixth-worst against LHP (91 wRC+).
Meanwhile, Peralta is facing an Orioles offense that is the third-best in baseball during the past two weeks and 11th this season against RHP (104 wRC+).
Picks: Baltimore Orioles ML (-122)
Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick
Two lefties are on the mound today to face two of the better offenses in baseball against LHP.
The Reds are 10th in baseball against southpaws (99 wRC+), while the Diamondbacks are 3rd (114 wRC+). The Reds' offense is the league's worst in the past two weeks, but they are facing one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball.
Eduardo Rodriguez's 2.71 ERA is backed by a 4.71 xERA, 4.42 xFIP, and 4.67 SIERA. He is very hittable and, as is typical for a LHP, worse against righties than lefties.
The Reds' offense can start nine righties in their lineup and potentially stack on runs against Rodriguez. The Diamondbacks trust their all-star SP enough to let him work through early mistakes, which should favor the over.
On the opposing mound, Nick Lodolo will look to add a few runs to this total as well. Lodolo returned from his IL stint two weeks ago and pitched well in his most recent start.
Unfortunately, Lodolo's season as a whole is lucky, like Rodriguez's, but his ERA is lucky at 4.52 rather than a pristine 2.71. Lodolo has a 2.17 ERA in six starts since June 23, but his peripherals are two full runs higher.
Picks: Reds/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 Total Runs (+108)
Athletics vs Houston Astros Pick
Ginn has a 21.4% K this season, but that jumps to 24.7% on the road. He pitches much better overall on the road with a lower BB%, WHIP, ERA, and xFIP.
Also, Ginn owns a 24.5% K against righties, whereas his K% against lefties is 19.3%. The Astros' offense is league average in K% against RHP like Ginn, but they are one of the most righty-dominant lineups in baseball when facing RHP.
Ginn has only crossed 4.5 strikeouts in 11 of 22 starts this season, but four have come in his past five. He has even struck out seven in three of the past five starts!
Picks: J.T Ginn Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-124)
Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners Pick
Matthew Boyd was roughed up in his most recent start against the Cardinals. He allowed seven runs and four home runs in 5 1/3 IP. He also allowed three walks, making this his third start in the past five games with three total walks allowed.
Boyd has done a good job limiting free passes this season, but this recent trend is concerning for him (but not our prop). He has a respectable 7.3% walk rate in 2026, but an 8.8% rate since July 24.
8.8% is not astronomical, but mixed in with Boyd's ability to pitch deeper into games, it gives plenty of opportunity for over 1.5 BB to hit. Boyd has thrown at least 5 IP in each start since June 30. He has thrown exactly 7 IP in three of his past five starts.
If Boyd can make his rounds through the Seattle order today, this line should be easy to cross. The Mariners' 9.2% BB against LHP is the 12th-highest in baseball, while their offense ranks fourth-worst.
Picks: Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 Walks (+120)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, August 21
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Baltimore Orioles ML (-122)
- Reds/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 Total Runs (+108)
- J.T Ginn Over 4.5 K (-124)
- Matthew Boyd Over 1.5 BB (+120)
