We have another full, 15-game nighttime Major League Baseball slate for Tuesday, April 28.
Our guys from the Payoff Pitch Podcast, Sean Zerillo and Collin Whitchurch, provided invaluable insight on the whole slate, including two picks for the 6:40 PM games that we've highlighted below (Giants vs. Phillies, Rockies vs. Reds).
Additionally, we have picks on the other top games of the day from Jon Anderson and Frank Ammirante.
Read on for our MLB picks and predictions Today.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 8:05 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Giants vs Phillies Moneyline Pick
By Sean Zerillo
Editor’s note: This article was transcribed from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
Jesus Luzardo has been very unlucky this season (6.90 ERA, 2.8 xFIP, 3.20 SIERA). His strikeout minus walk rate and earned run indicators are right in line with last season, but he’s been cursed with a crazy-high BABIP (.395), which should regress near his career average (.307). He’s also been unlucky with stranding base-runners (54% LOB this season, 72% MLB average).
Tyler Mahle has a similar story (5.26 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 3.80 SIERA). However, his expected ERA is pretty high (5.70) because he gives up a lot of home runs.
Ultimately, I project a massive gap between these starting pitchers, far larger than the market indicates. Luzardo is my No. 21 power-ranked starting pitcher, while Mahle is my No. 88.
I project these two bullpens to be about equal, but I project the Phillies as the better defensive and base-running team.
Ultimately, I make this line -210 and would bet them at -195 or better.
Pick: Phillies ML (-195 or Better)
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Rockies vs Reds Player Prop Pick
Editor’s note: This article was transcribed from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
I’m heading back to the well, as I almost always bet on Chase Burns when he’s on the mound.
This bet is straightforward: this is one of the best young strikeout pitchers in baseball against a team that strikes out more than any other team in baseball.
While the Rockies are much better this season, they’re still striking out at an insane rate (25.1%). Burns recently struck out eight against the Rays, a lineup that strikes out at the lowest rate in baseball (18.6%).
Pick: Chase Burns Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-150 or Better)
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Yankees vs Rangers Same Game Parlay Picks
By Jon Anderson
I'm guessing this over/under line, or at least the price on it, will be moving away from our favor. But if you can lock it in early and find something like what we're seeing here, I'm loving the even-money line you can get on an under 7.5 bet.
That's a human speaking, though. If we look at the projections (my own and The Bat X), we find that the math doesn't like Cam Schlittler nearly as much as the eye does. A lot of this has to do with the small sample.
Projection systems will be hesitant to assign a 30% strikeout projection for a guy until he does it for at least a couple of hundred innings. Schlittler doesn't have that.
So the projections see Schlittler under 17.5 outs for -125 and Schlittler under 6.5 strikeouts for -144, and decide that those are smash prices. I think it has to do with a lack of belief in his elite walk rate. He was at an 11% walk rate in 2025, up from 9% in 2024, and now we're down to 3%.
That small a number won’t continue. I think Schlittler will walk some more guys, and this is a team that likes to take the walk. So we're heading for a 7-8% walk rate for Schlittler on the year, and maybe that begins tonight.
It's a tough call. If you believe in the projections, you're on the Schlittler unders. I'm personally not as confident in them because I realize that Schlittler might be significantly better than the projections suggest, given the small sample.
So I want to bet on pitching.
Read Anderson's full Yankees-Rangers preview here:
SGP Picks: +124 (FanDuel)
- Jacob deGrom 5+ Strikeouts
- Cam Schlittler 5+ Strikeouts
- Under 7.5
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Cubs vs Padres Over/Under Pick
Edward Cabrera (4.58 SIERA) is taking on Walker Buehler (4.05 SIERA).
The Cubs' bullpen is taxed, having used Ben Brown and Phil Maton last night, with Danny Palencia, Caleb Thielbar, and Riley Martin injured.
The same goes for the Padres, who used Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and Jason Adam last night.
Each team ranks in the top 10 in wRC+ in the last seven days.
When you consider each of these factors, you come away liking the Over.
Read Ammirante's full Cubs-Padres preview here:
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110 or Better)
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