MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 3 Strikeout Totals, Including Lance Lynn & Zac Gallen (Saturday, September 25)
Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen
Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out three prop bets I’m playing for Saturday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Framber Valdez over 4.5 strikeouts (+110)
|Astros vs. Athletics||Astros -120|
|Time||4:07 p.m. ET|
Framber Valdez has made a career-high 20 starts this season and has gone 11-5 with a 3.07 ERA. In his last seven starts he is 4-2 with a 2.82 ERA. Valdez has been excellent at eating innings, averaging more than six innings per start and lasting at least six frames in in 14 of his 20 starts and at least seven in eight of them.
Usually a sinkerball pitcher isn’t great for strikeouts as they generate more groundballs, but despite throwing his sinker 51% of the time, Valdez comes back with a curveball 32% of the time. His curveball has been excellent, allowing a .129 batting average against and a 46.5 K%.
Valdez has gone over this total in 14 of his 20 starts and eight of the last 10. Back Valdez to go over this again.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Lance Lynn Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)
|White Sox vs. Indians||White Sox -200|
|Time||7:15 p.m. ET|
This is not a fade of Lance Lynn’s pitching ability. Lynn currently has the third-best odds to win the AL Cy Young award and has been tremendous this year. He is 10-5 with a 2.47 ERA. He ranks in the top 5% of the league in xERA and xwOBA.
Lynn has a 10.23 K/9 rate and is averaging 6.4 strikeouts per outing. However, I am backing his under because he will have a quick hook here. The White Sox have already locked up the division title and have noticeably been managing their pitchers’ workloads.
Carlos Rodon has made just five starts in two months, never going more than five innings. Lucas Giolito has pitched into the sixth once in his last three outings and Dylan Cease hasn’t pitched six frames all month.
Lynn is unlikely to pitch more than six innings today so I’ll back his under here.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102)
|Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers||Dodgers -245|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
The Diamondbacks expected big things from 26-year old Zac Gallen after a promising 2020 season but he has been horrible this season. He is 2-10 with 4.53 ERA and is allowing a 42.7% HardHit%.
However, due to the Arizona bullpen struggles, Gallen has been allowed to work through danger and pitch deeper into games than his numbers might indicate. He is averaging 5 1/3 innings per start and has pitched into the sixth in four straight starts eight of his last 10.
Gallen has a solid 10.29 K/9 rate and is averaging six strikeouts per start this year. He has hit this total in 13 of his 21 outings and seven of the last 10. I’ll play Gallen over 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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