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PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick: Max Scherzer Strikeout Total Worth Targeting in Atlanta (July 11)

PropBetGuy’s MLB Player Prop Pick: Max Scherzer Strikeout Total Worth Targeting in Atlanta (July 11) article feature image
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Alejandra Villa Loarca/Newsday RM via Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets pitcher Max Scherzer.

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Max Scherzer

Prop Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Matchup Mets vs. Braves
Time 7:20 p.m. ET
Books Available DraftKings


After spending more than six weeks on the injured list, Max Scherzer returned to the Mets rotation last Tuesday and pitched a gem. His 11 strikeouts in six shutout innings improved on some already solid early season numbers: Mad Max is now pitching to a 2.26 ERA with 70 strikeouts in 55.2 innings.

And with his baseball savant page littered in red dots, it’s safe to say Scherzer is in the midst of yet another stellar campaign. He ranks in at least the 85th percentile in strikeout rate, whiff rate, xERA, xBA, and hard-hit rate.

On the strikeout front, Scherzer has four-plus pitches he uses to punch out hitters: His four-seam fastball (23 K’s), slider (17), cutter (15) and changeup (12). His elite pitch mix has helped him reach at least seven strikeouts in six of his past nine starts.

While the Braves do trot out a formidable lineup, the Braves are one of the most free-swinging teams in all of baseball. Over the last 2 months, the Braves strikeout rate vs right-handed pitching of 24.6% is the third highest, mainly due to their swinging strike and chase rates ranking as the second- and fourth-highest respectively.

As one of the league’s elite whiff artists, I expect Scherzer to have his way with the Braves lineup tonight. I have the perennial Cy Young candidate projected at eight strikeouts.

Pick: Over 6.5 (-140) — Playable up to -150; also playable at over 7.5 up to +110

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