MLB Pitcher Props Saturday: Luis Castillo Strikeout Ladder
Photo by Joe Nicholson/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Castillo.
We are loaded with MLB action on Saturday, which means there is no better time to get back on track in the MLB player props department. Yesterday, we just missed a winning day as Spencer Turnbull racked up one more strikeout than his total.
However, that near miss means we're on the right track and riding high into MLB pitcher props for Saturday.
MLB Pitcher Props Saturday
I'm going back to well by fading Cincinnati Reds starter Graham Ashcraft. The right-hander burned me in his last outing against the Chicago White Sox, striking out eight in 5 2/3 innings.
However, that performance has inflated his strikeout line — and we are going to capitalize on it. Last season, there was much preseason hype about Ashcraft and his impressive stuff, but it did not translate to more punchouts like we thought it would.
This year, the strikeouts are coming in bunches for Ashcraft, but is an 8% increase in strikeout rate sustainable? I'm going to say, "No."
Ashcraft is a strike thrower and does not generate many chases outside the zone. However, with his opposition knowing this, balls put in play against him have been hit hard — he ranks in the bottom 10% of all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
On Saturday, he faces an aggressive Angels lineup. They are 10th in strikeout rate compared to 25th in walk rate. The matchup isn't as good as it seems on paper.
Lastly, Ashcraft's history suggests that this line is too high. He has gone under 6.5 strikeouts in 81% of 48 career starts. That hit rate gives us whopping implied odds of -426 that he'll go under again.
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Next, we go to Atlanta, where the defending World Series champions will hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi.
Eovaldi has gotten off to a great start in his age-34 season. In four outings, he has a 2.92 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. However, there is some cause for concern as advanced metrics suggest he's due for sizable regression.
Eovaldi ranks in the 41st percentile in barrel rate and is middle of the pack in other hard-contact metrics. The issue is his xERA is over a half-run higher than his ERA entering this outing.
You do not want to back a pitcher who is due to regress against a lineup like the Braves'. Atlanta may be missing Ozzie Albies, but that has not stopped them from leading the Majors in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
The Braves lineup mashes mistakes, and their home ballpark will only amplify the damage. Based on what we're expecting from both sides in this matchup, taking Eovaldi to hit the showers early is a good move.
For my third and final prop pick, we head to Coors Field. However, we're not here for offense; we're here for strikeouts.
The man who has the potential to rack up plenty of strikeouts tonight is Mariners starter Luis Castillo.
Castillo's ERA may not be impressive through four outings, but his strikeout rate is right where it's been for the last two years — and he is in a smash spot tonight.
The Rockies have the fourth-highest team strikeout rate in the Majors, and we have seen opposing starters post some gaudy strikeout totals already this season.
Castillo has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in half his starts this season, and that is about the trend we've seen since 2022.
However, going over 6.5 strikeouts is just the start — the real value lies in laddering up. There is line value on Castillo to have up to nine strikeouts tonight. That means we can take him at 6.5, 7.5 and 8.5.
I did this at bet365 and priced each bet to win one unit accordingly. Be sure to stake these correctly and hopefully enjoy Castillo's strikeout upside tonight.
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