Tonight may be Dinger Tuesday on FanDuel, but I see big strikeout upside on the slate.
Three pitchers I will be backing tonight are Tanner Bibee, Eury Perez, and Sean Burke.
Let's dive into my MLB player props for Tuesday, August 11.
MLB Player Props Today
- Tanner Bibee 5+ Strikeouts (51c, Kalshi)
- Eury Perez 7+ Strikeouts (49c, Kalshi)
- Sean Burke Over 7.5 Strikeouts (46c, Polymarket)
Guardians vs Tigers Prop
When the Guardians and Tigers get together, I usually don't expect too many runs. Over the past 10 meetings, the Under is 7-2-1, and just one of those games had 10 runs.
One reason for that has been Tanner Bibee.
Bibee was added to the rivalry when he debuted in 2023. Since then, he is 5-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 64 innings in 11 head-to-head regular-season starts. Including the postseason, he has pitched six innings in five of his past six starts against the Tigers, recording five strikeouts in each of those outings as well as nine of his past 12 starts against them.
Bibee is coming off a season-high 10 strikeouts against the Mets, his third with five strikeouts in his last four starts. Tonight, he gets a Tigers team that leads the MLB in wRC+ over the last month and has been the best team in the American League since June.
However, that span includes a Bibee start against the Tigers when he struck out eight in seven innings while only allowing two hits on solo home runs.
Additionally, despite their hot stretch, the Tigers still rank fifth in strikeout rate both for the season and over the past 30 days against right-handed pitchers.
Bibee has recorded two strikeouts or more against seven Tigers hitters likely in tonight's lineup, including nine against Riley Greene and six against Spencer Torkelson. If he works six innings again, he should get five strikeouts tonight — I wouldn't mind laddering this even higher.
Pick: Tanner Bibee 5+ Strikeouts (51c, Kalshi)
Pirates vs Marlins Prop
Two of the game's best young pitchers square off in Miami, as Perez and the Marlins will host Paul Skenes and the Pirates.
The Braves are one team that has given Perez fits throughout his career, and that continued in his last outing when he allowed four runs in five innings. However, this time he struck out nine and matched his season-high for the third time in his last three starts.
Perez has struck out at least six batters in seven of his past nine starts, reaching eight in five of those outings. He is up to 121 strikeouts (a new career-high) across 109 2/3 innings. Among qualified starters, he ranks in the 81st percentile in expected batting average allowed and strikeout rate while ranking in the 75th percentile in chase rate.
He struck out five in his lone start against the Pirates last season, but that was just in three innings. While the Pirates are a much better offensive team this season, they are still prone to striking out. Against right-handed pitchers, they rank sixth in strikeout rate for the season and first over the last month.
Perez has pitched six innings in five of his past seven starts and worked over five innings in the other two. If he gets around 15 to 18 outs tonight, I expect at least seven to be via punchout.
Pick: Eury Perez 7+ Strikeouts (49c, Kalshi)
Reds vs White Sox Prop
If you are going solely off hit rates, this line for Burke may be a stretch. He has recorded eight strikeouts in just eight of his 23 starts this season.
However, six of them have come over his last 10 starts, during which he is averaging 7.7 strikeouts per game.
He will be looking to bounce back after what was a rare rough outing for him last time out, but facing the Reds instead of the Red Sox should give him more success.
The Reds lead the MLB in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Four of the last five traditional starters they faced cleared their strikeout line against them, including Cade Cavalli and Jacob Lopez, who both reached eight.
Like Perez, Burke ranks in the 81st percentile in strikeout rate among qualified starters. He has 144 strikeouts this season and is just six away from reaching 150 for the first time in his career.
Pick: Sean Burke Over 7.5 Strikeouts (46c, Polymarket)
