For my Wednesday MLB player props, I'll be looking into three hitters in Cal Raliegh, Luis Arraez, and Nick Kurtz.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for July 9, 2025.
MLB Props, Picks — Wednesday, July 9
- Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 Home Runs (+190, BetMGM)
- Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (- 160, Fanatics)
- Nick Kurtz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, Fanatics)
Mariners vs Yankees Player Props: Raleigh To Benefit From Short Porch
Last night, Aaron Judge hit his 34th home run of the season. He tied his own personal Yankees record for most home runs before the All-Star break and pulled within one of Cal Raliegh in the process -temporarily. In the eighth inning, Raliegh blasted his 36th home run of the year and passed Ken Griffey Jr: for the most in Mariners history before the break. At this point, Raliegh is a threat to go deep any given night, but I had my eye on him for tonight’s game.
With Clarke Schmidt out for the season, the Yankees will turn to rookie Cam Schlittler for his spot in the rotation. Across two levels, Schlittler has a 2.82 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 76 and 2/3 innings, so he certainly appears ready for his call-up. However, I noticed in his scouting report that his stuff does not play as well against left-handed hitters. Lefties were hitting .257 against him in the minors compared to .215 against right-handed batters.
Enter Raleigh, who has hit 22 of his 36 home runs against right-handed pitchers. On the road, he is hitting .292 with a 1.093 OPS. At Yankee Stadium, he will also benefit from the short porch in right field batting left-handed. His home run last night was to right field, though he cleared the porch significantly as it went 394 feet. He may get #37 off Schlittler tonight.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Player Props: Expect Arraez's Strong Form To Continue
If you like offense, Diamondbacks–Padres probably did not hold your interest very long last night. There were more robbed home runs (Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill) than runs scored as the Padres won on the only run of the game. Arizona's outfielders could not bring back Luis Arraez's drive to right field in the seventh field. It is a bit of a surprise when Arraez homers, considering he has only one season with 10 home runs, but his getting on base is not a surprise at all.
Last night, Arraez extended his streak to five and he has a hit in 20 of his last 23 games as well. He has enjoyed a lot of success against Arizona right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, as he is 10-for-16 (.625) with two doubles and two RBI against him. The 26-year-old has struggled this year with a 5.42 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Left-handed hitters are hitting .287 with a .838 OPS against him as well.
Arraez has cleared this line in 14 of his last 20 games. That includes four of his last five games during his hitting streak, and he is averaging three hits, runs, and runs batted in during that span. He has also cleared this line in 11 of his past 16 games against Arizona. Considering his success against Pfaadt, I expect all of those trends to continue tonight.
Braves vs Athletics Player Props: Favorable Matchup For Kurtz
Though this year's All-Star teams were just announced, one player I expect to be there in the near future is A's first basemen Nick Kurtz. In just 53 games, the rookie has 14 home runs, 39 RBI, and a .851 OPS. Last night, home run No. 14 came in the form of a grand slam as the A's teed off on Atlanta's pitching in game one of the series. With Bryce Elder starting, it may not get much better for Atlanta tonight.
Elder has a 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season. He is surrendering a 12.5% barrel rate on fastballs and 10.3% overall on all his pitches, which has led to 16 home runs allowed in just 73 innings. Conversely, Kurtz has a 12.1% barrel rate on fastballs and 16.5% overall. He ranks in the 94th percentile of qualified hitters in barrel rate and the 88th percentile in average exit velocity.
Kurtz has 13 of his home runs against right-handed pitching this season and he has a .969 OPS against them as well. Unlike teammate Luis Severino, he has also enjoyed the hitter-friendly environment at Sacramento. He is slashing .298/.376/1.057 with six doubles, 10 home runs, and 27 RBI at home this season.
During the A's current homestand, Kurtz has recorded two total bases in three of the first four games while averaging 3.5 per game. With a favorable matchup against Elder tonight, I like that trend to continue.
