Yankees vs Guardians Picks, Best Bets, Odds for Game 3 of ALDS MLB Playoffs
Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks.
- The Yankees are favored over the Guardians in Game 3 of the ALDS on Saturday afternoon.
- Luis Severino takes the mound for New York, while Cleveland is going with Triston McKenzie.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets from this tiebreaking ALDS Game 3.
Yankees vs. Guardians Game 3 Odds
|Time||7:37 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Breakout star Triston McKenzie takes the mound for the home underdogs, while Luis Severino will look to bring the Bronx Bombers a win from the ALCS.
Here are our three best bets from ALDS Game 3 between the Guardians and Yankees.
MLB Odds & Picks
Odds via FanDuel
Jules Posner: If Triston McKenzie follows the blueprint Shane Bieber laid out in Game 2, the Guardians should be in good shape in Game 3. McKenzie did well to follow Bieber's lead in the Wild Card Round and he'll look to repeat that effort in the ALDS.
McKenzie will be taking on an offense that was around league average on the road against right-handers to end the season. With Aaron Judge struggling at the top of the order and an offense that really struggled to capitalize on opportunities — save for a Giancarlo Stanton's first inning home run — McKenzie might be an underdog postseason hero in the making.
Luis Severino will have to deal with a feisty Guardians offense in their stronger split as they've thrived at home against right-handers. Severino has a solid 3.22 road ERA, but his 3.79 FIP and 3.80 xFIP mean there's a little room for regression.
Severino is also going to be backed by a shaky and poorly managed bullpen. The Guardians are slight underdogs, but have the edge here in multiple facets. Bet them to -120.
Yankees First Five ML -115
Odds via BetMGM
Charlie DiSturco: Returning home to Cleveland, the Guardians are all tied up with the Yankees and hand the ball to 25-year-old Triston McKenzie.
McKenzie is fresh off a six-inning shutout of the Rays and had a career year (2.96 ERA), but I expect the Yankees to pounce on the right-hander. McKenzie’s barrel rate is nearly 10 percent, and he’s been quite lucky all season with expected indicators in the mid-to-high 3s.
He benefits from a great defense behind him, but against an offense that is littered with power, I expect NY to bounce back. I’m not phased by his shutout of the Yankees back in July, that came during the slump where the Bronx Bombers went 23-31 from July through August.
Opposite him will be Luis Severino who returned from injury in late September and finished the season with seven shutout against the Rangers. Sevy ranks in the top 20 percent of all pitchers in xBA and xSLG and his biggest issue — hard-hit rate — is an area I don’t see Cleveland taking advantage of.
The Guardians are dead-last in both hard-hit rate and barrels as a team. They rely on soft contact and situational hitting, and we’ve seen just how bad the offense has been against starting pitching in the opening two rounds.
In the first half of every postseason game, Cleveland has scored a combined three runs over 20 innings. Their saving grace has been great starting pitching paired with an elite bullpen.
While I’m staying away from the full-game moneyline — Game 2 was a perfect example — I think the Yankees hold a big edge over the first half of Saturday. Back Severino and the Bronx Bombers to jump on McKenzie early, up to -125.
Guardians Team Totals Over 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5
Odds via PointsBet
Jim Turvey: OK, yes, this is a strange bet on the surface. The Guardians' offense has been the worst of any team still playing in the postseason, and their high water mark is the four runs it took extra innings to get to on Friday.
But they're set up to do better on Saturday. For one, the Yankees bullpen used all of its best arms in an attempt to go up 2-0 Friday afternoon. This was a bullpen already missing a few key arms coming into the series, and on Friday they used six(!) relievers, including almost all their best. That's part of why I'll also be looking to live bet this number even if Cleveland is scoreless through three or four innings — the lack of bullpen is the real key here.
Starting for New York, Luis Severino is also making only his fourth start back from the IL, and while he went seven innings in his final start of the regular season, that's because he was literally throwing a no-hitter. I don't see him making it through seven high-stress road playoff innings on Saturday.
Severino also has quite a hittable changeup, a pitch that he uses nearly a quarter of the time but produced a negative run value this season. The Guardians' offense, for all their struggles, was third-best in all of baseball in runs created against changeups this season, and once again: this offense is terrible against lefties, but it's around league-average against righties.
I would bet a unit on the over 2.5 (-140), a half unit on the over 3.5 (+130), and then just a sprinkle (0.1 units) on over 4.5 (+240) and over 5.5 (+375).
We saw Friday just how electric these Game 3 underdog crowds can be, and even without the narrative, the numbers back a potential breakout game finally for the Guardian offense.