MLB Playoffs Odds, Picks | NRFI Best Bets For Padres vs Mets, Phillies vs Cardinals (October 8)
Casey Sykes/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola
1Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
| Matchup | T. Glasnow (Rays) vs. T. McKenzie (Guardians) |
| First Pitch | 12:07 p.m. ET |
The first game on today’s slate is between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians. The Rays will send out Tyler Glasnow in a must-win game.
Glasnow has been very proficient to the NRFI in the past, but this season has been dealing with some health issues resulting in him only being 2-0 to the NRFI. With such limited starts, this takes him out of the question of being a NRFI selection.
The Guardians will counter with Triston McKenzie who is 21-8 to the NRFI with a decent 9–4 home NRFI split.
With McKenzie having a slightly above-average home NRFI split, and Glasnow's limited appearances this season I don't believe there is any value on the NRFI priced at (-185) over on FanDuel.
Pick: Pass
| Matchup | R. Ray (Mariners) vs. K. Gausman (Blue Jays) |
| First Pitch | 4:07 p.m. ET |
The second game on the slate today is between the Seattle Mariners and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mariners will send out Robbie Ray, who is 24-8 to the NRFI, with a so-so 9-5 road NRFI record.
Ray's most important matchups today are against leadoff hitter George Springer, who is 6-for-15 against him, and Matt Chapman who is 1-for-7.
The Blue Jays will counter With Kevin Gausman. Coming into today, Gausman is 22-8 to the NRFI with a 10-5 home NRFI split. His most noteworthy matchups today are against Adam Frazier, who is 13-for-32, and Ty France, who is 3-for-7.
Ray does not have an advantage in the batter vs pitcher category that we would like to see for an NRFI. In a do-or-die game for the Blue Jays, I give a slight lean to the YRFI here at (+110) over on FanDuel.
Lean: YRFI +110 (FanDuel)
| Matchup | B. Snell (Padres) vs. J. deGrom (Mets) |
| First Pitch | 7:37 p.m. ET |
The third game slated for today is the New York Mets against the San Diego Padres. The Mets will send out arguably the best NRFI pitcher in baseball with Jacob DeGrom, who is 10-1 to the NRFI with a perfect 6-0 home NRFI split.
deGrom's most crucial matchups today are against Manny Machado, who is 6-for-20, and Juan Soto who is 3-for-15.
The Padres will counter with their veteran, Blake Snell. Slightly surprisingly, Snell has been better to the NRFI this year and is 21-3 overall with an 8–1 road NRFI split. Snell has also dominated Mets' Francisco Lindor, who is a measly 3-for-25.
deGrom is by far the best NRFI option on the board today. Snell has been terrific this year putting his terrible road splits behind him and posting a 8-1 road NRFI record.
I would feel comfortable laying the (-185) price here over on FanDuel for essentially a 3-out NRFI.
Pick: NRFI -185 (FanDuel)
| Matchup | A. Nola (Phillies) vs. M. Mikolas (Cardinals) |
| First Pitch | 8:37 p.m. ET |
The final game for today is the Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis Cardinals. The Phillies' best NRFI pitcher, Aaron Nola will toe the rubber. Nola is 27-4 overall with an impressive 13–2 road NRFI split.
Nola's most important matchups today will be against Paul Goldschmidt, who is 3-for-20, and Nolan Arenado, who is not much better at 3-for-15.
The Cardinals in a must-win game will counter with Miles Mikolas. This 2022 standout has been phenomenal to the NRFI. Coming into today, he is 26-6 to the NRFI with a 10-4 home and NRFI split. His most notable matchups will be Kyle Schwarber, who is 4-for-20, and Bryce Harper, who is 4-for-10
On Friday, these offenses were held in check until the eighth inning. With even better NRFI pitchers tossing today, I am predicting another NRFI.
Nola is the second-best NRFI option today with a price tag of (-140) over on FanDuel this is an excellent price tag.
For the Mikolas side, he gets a Phillies offense that is to a surprise awful at hitting on the road in the first inning, achieving the NRFI at an alarming 79% of the time.
Pick: NRFI -140 (FanDuel)
For all of Shayne Trail's favorite NRFI/YRFI bets, follow him in the Action Network app.
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