MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Odds Saturday: Model Predictions (4/20)
Photo by Brett Davis/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Morton.
I'm not sure if it was a result of updating with current-season stats or simply variance turning back our way, but we snapped the MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) losing streak on Friday with a solid 3-1 showing.
The MLB NRFI season record now stands at 45-26, for just under 20 units in profit. Let's make it a winning streak on Saturday, April 20, with three more MLB NRFI & YRFI picks.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks, Odds Saturday: Model Predictions (4/20)
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Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Charlie Morton
This game features the best offense in baseball in Atlanta, another top-ten unit in Texas, and a 9.5-run implied total.
On top of that, Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has a 4.68 xFIP his first time through the order, compared to 3.82 overall this season. That's not great when you have to face Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley in the first inning.
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Dakota Hudson
I can't recall ever seeing a YRFI with this little juice in a game with a double-digit total. That over/under is obviously due to the game being at Coors Field — but it's at Coors Field in the first inning, too.
These aren't the best offenses, but these aren't pitchers to avoid either, making this a pretty straightforward choice.
Starting Pitchers: Kutter Crawford vs. Mitch Keller
I took some Yes Runs First Innings (YRFI) against him early in the season, but I've seen the light with Kutter Crawford.
Apparently, sportsbooks have, too, with this game having an over/under of just eight. Mitch Keller is solid early in games as well, and neither offense is particularly intimidating up top.
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