MLB Odds, Best Bets: 4 Saturday Picks for Phillies vs. Cubs, White Sox vs. Royals & More
Pictured: Bryce Harper. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
- Saturday's MLB slate is loaded with day games, which means there's no time to waste.
- Our experts have looked over the matchups on Saturday, May 20, and they've found betting value in numerous matchups.
- Continue reading for their MLB picks and analysis.
The Saturday, May 20, MLB slate features 15 games as every team is in action. With that many games on the board, there is plenty of betting value and our MLB betting experts have you covered with multiple best bets.
They've targeted a variety of different bets, including a team total, a full-game total, a first five innings moneyline and a full-game moneyline pick.
With so much value on the board, let's dig right in. Continue reading for our analysis and MLB best bets for Saturday, May 20.
Saturday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Royals vs. White Sox
Saturday, May 20 2:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
White Sox Over 5 Runs (-105)  |
By D.J. James
Jordan Lyles will start for the Royals and he's had his fair share of struggles this season. He's posted a 9.37 ERA in May and it's not like the White Sox are a torrid hitting team, but they have started to hit better over the past week and even tagged Lyles for four earned runs on May 9.
Lyles has a 7.14 ERA with a 5.60 xERA on the season, so he's been unlucky, but 5.60 is still a terrible number. He ranks in the 58th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 64th percentile in Hard Hit Rate, but the rest of his peripherals aren't encouraging. He ranks in the ninth percentile in Barrel percentage and the eighth percentile in xSLG. He is also only striking out 16.8% of hitters.
In relief, the Royals have a bullpen xFIP of 4.44, which is not good. They are also walking 14.5% of hitters. They do have five active relievers with an xFIP under 4.00, but the White Sox fare better against lefties and two of these hurlers are southpaws.
The White Sox hitters have fared well in the past week. They have a 124 wRC+ with a .817 OPS off of right-handers. This lineup still has issues with walking, but Lyles doesn't necessarily specialize in getting opponents to chase, so they should be fine. Chicago has four active hitters with a .330 (or better) xwOBA against righties, but Tim Anderson is finally starting to hit the ball, and Yoán Moncada and Gavin Sheets have also looked strong at the dish lately.
Lyles should have trouble with the White Sox and Chicago could also tack on some runs late against the Royals bullpen. Take the Sox to go over their team total at 5 (-105), and play them to 5.5 (-105).
Pick: White Sox Over 5 Runs |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Phillies
Saturday, May 20 4:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Phillies 1st 5 Innings Moneyline (-170)  |
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on the Saturday slate is the Philadelphia Phillies to win the first five innings over the Chicago Cubs.
The main reason for this pick is that Philadelphia is at home going up against Cubs starter Jameson Taillon. The Cubs signed Taillon over the offseason and he has a 6.66 ERA after six starts. His past three starts have been particularly bad as he allowed three earned runs in three innings against the Washington Nationals, four earned runs in 2 2/3 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals and four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Houston Astros.
He simply hasn’t been effective lately. It’s been so bad that he hasn’t completed five innings in any of his past three starts and hasn’t completed six innings yet this season.
Even though he went 4 2/3 innings and faced 21 batters in his most recent start, he only managed one strikeout. Taillon is allowing a .239 ISO to left-handed hitters and this is a Phillies lineup with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh.
Additionally, the Phillies have their ace, Aaron Nola, on the mound and he should be able to take care of business at home in the first five innings.
Pick: Phillies 1st 5 Innings Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tigers vs. Nationals
Saturday, May 20 4:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Tigers Moneyline (-115)  |
Patrick Corbin has had a few decent starts in a row, but there's nothing in his stuff numbers or underlying metrics to suggest he's actually pitching any better. Even a bad, below replacement level starter is capable of putting together a decent stretch of games, and Corbin has now done this in brief stretches in each of the past two seasons.
Detroit may be one of the worst offenses in the league against righties, but the Tigers actually project as around a league average offense against southpaws. Alex Faedo has only pitched 10 2/3 innings this year, but he's showcased an above average slider and changeup based on the Stuff+ model.
Combine that with his improved command through two starts and the results are a considerably better starting pitcher than Corbin. Corbin's fastball gets just 67 Stuff+ rating, one of the worst in the league, and he doesn't have a single above average offering.
Detroit has the better starter and better lineup and shouldn't be a coin flip here. I'd bet Detroit up to -115.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Mets
Saturday, May 20 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 8.5 (-110) |
By D.J. James
Max Scherzer hasn't exactly been the most stable force for the New York Mets and has had some underwhelming results. However, he did just turn in a strong outing, allowing just one run over five innings against the Washington Nationals in his most recent start. He will throw against another bad-hitting team, the Cleveland Guardians, on Saturday.
The Guardians rank last in Hard Hit Rate and are tied for last in Average Exit Velocity. Against right-handers, they have a 62 wRC+ and a 7.1% walk rate in May. Additionally, their OPS is below .600.
Cleveland will throw Tanner Bibee, an intriguing young righty, against New York. Bibee ranks in the 63rd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 76th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. He holds a 3.22 ERA and a 3.02 xERA, so he is right in line with expectations. With a walk rate in the 90th percentile and an above average strikeout rate, Cleveland fans have plenty to look forward to.
New York has also been pretty rough against righties. The Mets have a 95 wRC+ and a .685 OPS, so they aren't doing much damage.
In relief, the Mets have a 4.88 xFIP. Cleveland has a 3.98 xFIP, so the Mets could cause some issues with the total, but Cleveland is bad at hitting, so the total should be in fine shape.
Take the under at 8.5 (-110) and play it to 8 (-120).
Pick: Under 8.5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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