MLB Best Bets Saturday | Guardians vs Diamondbacks Odds, Picks, Prediction
Photo by Zac BonDurant/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Carroll.
- There are 15 games and numerous betting opportunities on the Saturday, June 15, MLB slate.
- Action Network's team of baseball betting experts has looked over the betting odds and made picks for today's games, including the last game -- Guardians vs. Diamondbacks.
- They've found the best value on the board, so continue reading for today's best MLB bets.
This week's MLB Saturday slate doesn't disappoint. There are 15 games on the June 17 schedule and a number of enticing matchups to watch. Our betting experts have looked over the MLB odds and identified a trio of best bets.
Our experts are betting Marlins vs. Nationals, Pirates vs. Brewers and Guardians vs. Diamondbacks on Saturday, June 17.
The picks and analysis are below, so continue reading for Saturday's MLB best bets.
Saturday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Marlins vs. Nationals
Saturday, June 17 4:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Marlins -1.5 (+100)  |
By Nick Shlain
One of my favorite bets on Saturday's slate is the Miami Marlins (-1.5) over the Washington Nationals at +100 odds.
The Marlins won the first game of the series in Washington behind a five-hit performance from second baseman Luis Arraez. Now, Miami faces Washington starter Jake Irvin.
Irvin has a 6.17 xFIP on the season and has allowed a .217 ISO to left-handed hitters. Arraez and Jesus Sanchez, who has a .223 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, should be able to take advantage of Irvin in this matchup.
Braxton Garrett, who will start for Miami, has a 3.07 xFIP this season. Miami has the clear edge in terms of starting pitching as Garrett has struck out at least six batters in six of his past seven starts. Washington also has the fourth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball (4.76), while the Marlins have a 4.11 bullpen ERA. I give the edge to Miami here and think there’s value on betting the Marlins to win by multiple runs.
Pick: Marlins -1.5 |
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Pirates vs. Brewers
Saturday, June 17 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Pirates 1st 5 Innings Moneyline (-107)  |
I continue to be baffled as to why Mitch Keller isn't getting more respect from oddsmakers.
After a couple of tough-luck starts, Keller rebounded nicely in a 2-1 win over the Mets last week. Even if you include his inexplainable blow-up start against the A's two outings ago, Keller has 71 strikeouts against 12 walks in his past nine starts (57 1/3 innings) and four of those 12 walks came in that aforementioned start.
Keller is a significantly better pitcher than his Saturday counterpart, Wade Miley, who has defied his peripherals at the age of 36, posting a 3.67 ERA despite missing an unseemly low number of bats.
Miley's expected stats are all a run or more higher, and if we're just looking at the starting pitchers alone, Keller is about a full run better than Miley (if not more).
What's more, Pittsburgh's offense is significantly stronger against left-handed pitchers like Miley, posting numbers about nine percent above league average (109 wRC+) against southpaws, compared to five percent below league average (95 wRC+) against right-handers.
I like the Pirates in both halves on Saturday as their bullpen is strong enough to hold any lead Keller might leave with.
I would bet the full game line to -120, but love the value on the first five innings moneyline at -107. I would bet that to -130.
Pick: Pirates 1st 5 Innings Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Brewers
Saturday, June 17 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Pirates Moneyline (-105)  |
Mitch Keller has finally turned into the ace the Pirates expected him to become. Keller is 8-2 with a 3.41 ERA and a 3.30 xERA. He has a great pitch mix of a four-seam fastball, cutter and sinker, and ranks in the top 20% of the league in generating strikeouts and limiting hard contact.
Keller is a large reason the Pirates are exceeding expectations. After a phenomenal start, Keller has had a few recent hiccups, but settled back down in his last outing, allowing just two hits across seven innings.
This should be a good matchup for Keller to remain on track as the Brewers rank 26th in wRC+. Milwaukee has the second-highest strikeout rate in the league and Keller has racked up at least seven strikeouts in 11 of his 14 starts.
Brewers starter Wade Miley is due for regression as his 4.59 xERA is almost a full run higher than his 3.67 ERA through eight starts. His strikeout rate is the lowest of his career and is basically nonexistent at this point.
Pittsburgh’s offense is inconsistent, but ranks top 10 in the league in wRC+ and wOBA over the past month. Ke’Bryan Hayes is totally locked in at the plate right now, and Bryan Reynolds is finally starting to heat up.
The Pirates seem to never win in Milwaukee, but they have both the better pitcher and offense right now. Take Pittsburgh to Raise the Jolly Roger as a short favorite.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks
Saturday, June 17 10:10 p.m. ET FS1 |
Diamondbacks Moneyline (-105) |
By D.J. James
Tommy Henry hasn't been at his best in his past two starts for the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, he faces Shane Bieber and the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday. Cleveland has swung the bats well, especially against lefties, in June. That said, the Guardians are playing well above their pay grade. The Guardians rank last in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, despite their 111 wRC+ off of southpaws this month.
Off of righties, Arizona has seen similar success. The Diamondbacks own a 115 wRC+ with a 9.6% walk rate and a .803 OPS in June.
Bieber, like the Guardians, is overachieving this season. His 3.29 ERA is a façade when compared to his 4.65 xERA. He also ranks in the ninth percentile in average exit velocity and the 14th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Henry has similar expected numbers, but doesn't allow hard contact. He ranks in the 86th percentile in average exit velocity and in the 87th percentile in hard-hit rate. That means a couple of things …
- Cleveland will be making even weaker contact than usual.
- Henry can pitch deep into games if he limits walks.
In relief, the differences between these teams is negligible in June. Take Arizona on the moneyline and play it to -130. The Diamondbacks should be favored.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-105 | Play to -130) |
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