MLB Predictions on Sunday, April 16 | Odds, Picks for Diamondbacks vs Marlins, Brewers vs Padres Today
Pictured: Yu Darvish. (Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images)
- Sunday's MLB slate, as usual, includes 14 games getting started early this afternoon.
- Our analysts have their eyes on two of them in particular: Marlins vs. Diamondbacks and Padres vs. Brewers.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets from the MLB slate on Sunday, April 16th.
The NBA playoffs are underway, but there's still plenty of baseball to watch on Sunday.
All 30 teams are in action and the numerous day games mean there's plenty of baseball bets worth placing right away.
Speaking of MLB bets worth placing, our experts have looked over the Sunday, April 16 slate and found value on a couple plays. We're targeting a total and an underdog on the moneyline. So without further delay, let's get into our MLB best bets for Sunday, April 16.
TODAY MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Sunday, April 16 1:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Diamondbacks Moneyline (+116)  |
By William Boor
Betting against the reigning Cy Young Award winner isn't the most comfortable of feelings, but something doesn't seem right with Sandy Alcantara this season.
Yes, he threw a three-hit shutout against the Twins in his second start, but he also gave up nine runs over four innings against the Phillies in his most recent start. Now, I don't expect Alcantara to completely fall off a cliff and yielding nine runs seems like an outlier, but his advanced metrics — albeit in a small sample size — seem to indicate he's regressing a bit from last season.
Alcantara has pitched to a 4.53 xERA and ranks in just the 30th percentile in xBA and the 16th percentile in K%.
That brings us to Arizona's starter — Zac Gallen.
Gallen is someone I've loved to back over the past year and while his 4.58 ERA doesn't jump off the page, his 2.56 xERA indicates he's been a bit unlucky in the early going. While Alcantara's metrics leave a bit to be desired, Gallen's give bettors reasons to be excited.
The 27-year-old right-hander ranks in the 77th percentile in K%, the 76th percentile in Whiff%, the 71st percentile in xBA and the 78th percentile in xSLG. After a couple tough outings to start the season, Gallen fanned 11 over seven scoreless innings in his most recent outing, so it seems as if he's settling in to the season.
Not only do the D-backs have the better starter, but they also boast the better offense as Arizona is averaging roughly a full run per game more than the Marlins.
Gallen is a pitcher I'll be backing often this season and Sunday is no exception. Play Arizona down to -120.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Padres
Sunday, April 16 4:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 7.5 (-115)  |
Yu Darvish is someone I'm going to target fading quite often this season when the price is right. Unfortunately for Sunday, I don't have enough faith in Wade Miley to take the Brewers outright as decently sized underdogs.
Instead, I'm looking at the total, which opened at 7.5 and may be 8 by the time you read this. If you look at Darvish's first two starts in a vacuum, you see one good start (against Arizona) and one bad start (against the Mets). In actuality, he was more effective against the Mets, but the batted ball events he allowed found grass. Meanwhile, he was erratic against the Diamondbacks and lucky to escape with only one earned run allowed.
Regardless, it's been an uneven start for Darvish and what's been most jarring is that he's yet to allow a home run, something I think will change Sunday.
Miley has avoided serious damage in his first two starts with the Brewers, but he's a low-ceiling starter who is never going to miss enough bats to ascend any further. Against a red-hot Padres offense, he could be in for a hurting.
I'll also be keeping an eye on the Brewers Team Total here. As of writing, the only book with lines posted is Caesars and they have over 3.5 at +100, which presents good value. Consider playing an escalator on their team total up to 5.5 or so in case Darvish truly gets shelled.
But for the more risk-averse, a play on the Brewers team total over 3.5 seems a fine bet. In terms of a best bet, though, both pitchers combine to give good value at over 7.5 at -120 or better. I would also take over 8 at -110 or better, assuming this line moves there before first pitch.
Pick: Over 7.5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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