The Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 6, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Brewers are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +116 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Pirates vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction
- Pirates vs Brewers Pick: Under 7.5 (-108)
Our Pirates vs Brewers best bet is Under 7.5 total runs this afternoon. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Brewers Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +116 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -126 |
- Pirates vs Brewers moneyline: Pirates +116, Brewers -126
- Pirates vs Brewers over/under: 7.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Pirates vs Brewers spread: Pirates +1.5 (-210), Brewers -1.5 (+172)
Pirates vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Braxton Ashcraft (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Dustin May (RHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-4 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 2.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 3.96 / 3.39 | ERA / xERA | 4.38 / 3.91 |
| 3.53 / 3.26 | FIP / xFIP | 3.14 / 3.87 |
| 20.7 | K-BB% | 15.5 |
| 43.9 | GB% | 43.1 |
| .302 | BABIP | .322 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 107 | Location+ | 102 |
Pirates vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
The three previous games of this series were under the line with totals of 7, 6, and 6 runs scored.
Add weather conditions to that strong trend. Our Bet Labs "Wind Blowing In" system recommends backing yet another under this afternoon.
Braxton Ashcraft takes the hill for the Pirates. He's having a solid season and is coming off a great outing against the Reds, allowing just two hits and one run in five complete innings.
His rival will be Dustin May, recently acquired from the Cardinals to help the Brewers in their upcoming playoff run.
May's last two starts were great, giving up only one run and eight hits in 11 complete innings.
The Pirates offense ranks next-to-last in the past seven days in wRC+ (61), while the Brewers are 17th (88).
Pirates vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
When wind blows in at 5–35 mph, fly balls lose carry and home run rates drop significantly.
This system targets unders in these conditions with totals between 6–11, which is the case for today's Pirates-Brewers matchup.
This is a sharp weather-based angle that exploits environmental factors that are often underweighted in line-setting but heavily affect scoring outcomes.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-108, FanDuel)
