MLB Predictions Today | Odds, Picks for Padres vs Twins, Marlins vs Diamondbacks, More (Tuesday, May 9)
Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Alek Thomas
Tuesday’s MLB slate brings with it 15 games — all under the lights — and plenty of betting value.
Our MLB analysts are targeting three games in particular: Tigers vs. Guardians, Padres vs. Mets and Marlins vs. Diamondbacks.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Tuesday, May 9th.
Tuesday’s MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Tigers vs. Guardians
By Kenny Ducey
Michael Lorenzen has been a bit up and down to start the 2023 season, but he’s coming off the best of his four outings. The righty held the Mets to just a run on four hits over seven frames last week and is in another excellent spot against the Guardians on Tuesday.
Cleveland has scored just 17 runs in its last eight games, posting a criminally low 45 wRC+ in the span. Most concerning of all would be the 24.6% strikeout rate which the Guardians have flashed, though a low 8.1% walk rate is not something you like to see either. This is a team built around plate discipline and contact, and right now it has none of it.
Lorenzen’s biggest issue has always been walks, so he will welcome a team which is jumping at the wrong pitches. On the other side of the coin, the Detroit Tigers have found a way to go from one of the guiltiest strikeout teams in the league to one which has struck out in just 19.2% of plate appearances in the last week. I’m loving what I’m seeing from their bats, and it’s translated into many runs.
Shane Bieber is a huge regression candidate given his .281 expected batting average against, and his strikeout numbers are also way down this season. The combination should give the Tigers an excellent chance here on the road.
Pick: Tigers +180
Padres vs. Twins
The Twins have the considerably better starting pitcher in this matchup and the market isn’t adequately pricing that in. Minnesota should be a bigger home favorite against Michael Wacha than it is on Tuesday.
Twins starter Louie Varland doesn’t have good batted ball data allowed through 10 2/3 innings in Minnesota, but the underlying peripherals are considerably more impressive. Varland has four pitches that grade out as above average by Stuff+. His K-BB% is among the elite in the AL, which is one of the most predictive leading indicator metrics for pitchers.
Varland has already allowed four homers, but that’s one of the most noisy statistics in small samples. He’s striking out almost 30% of hitters and generating elite whiff rates and chase rates with his stuff. Compare this Wacha, who is sub 20% in strikeout rate and has one of the worst graded fastballs in all of MLB.
The Padres’ lineup is also not producing at the rate you’d expect given the names. As long as Manny Machado and Juan Soto are slumping in the middle of the order, the Padres will continue to underperform. They’ll both be fine long term, but San Diego has short-term issues until Soto finds his slugging and Machado stops pressing and cuts his chase rate.
I’d bet Minnesota at -120 or better against San Diego on Tuesday.
Pick: Twins -108
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks
As a Fish fanatic, I will admit my Jesus Luzardo worry meter is steadily rising. After a stellar beginning of the year, Luzardo’s posted a 5.06 ERA over his last five starts, allowing his xERA to eclipse 4.00.
That said, Luzardo’s fastball is still coming in around 97 mph, and the Stuff+ on his slider is hanging around 110. He’s hung around with the Braves, Cubs and Phillies during this stretch, so I’m trying to remain optimistic.
Either way, I’m hoping he’ll see some reprieve against the Diamondbacks, who are in their worse split (102 wRC+ vs. lefties, 113 vs. righties) and boast a below-average batted-ball profile (the Diamondbacks don’t win games by smashing the baseball).
Meanwhile, the Marlins are looking like the Fish of old again. They have a 71 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers over the past two weeks, the third-worst in baseball during the stretch. They’ve lost six of seven in May, averaging 2.7 runs per game during the stretch.
So, it’s a perfect time for Arizona’s No. 3 overall prospect Brandon Pfaadt to have his “I’m here” game. Texas lit him up for seven runs over 4 ⅔ innings in his MLB debut, but the Rangers can hit, and the Marlins can’t.
Pfaadt has a mid-90s fastball with a sweeping slider and potentially plus-changeup. He checked in with a 145 Stuff+ on the former and 135 Stuff+ on the latter, which gives me hope even in a small sample size.
Either way, Pfaadt lit up Triple-A over the past two seasons, striking out around 30% of batters faced. The Marlins are hitting like a Triple-A team right now.
Neither the Marlins nor Diamondbacks used their top relievers Monday, so the bullpens are mostly fresh and can suppress runs in the later innings. It’s also nice that the Snakes boast that wildly elite defense.
The total has gone under in four straight meetings between Miami and Arizona, so I’m willing to bet on another low-scoring affair. It’s also nice we’re getting a relatively high total juiced to the over.
I wouldn’t bet it any lower than this number, however, given our PRO model projects the total around 8.8.
Pick: Under 9 (+100)
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