MLB Picks Today | Odds, Predictions for Mets vs Dodgers, More on Monday, April 17
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso.
With the early Patriots Day game in Boston underway, there's still 11 more games on the MLB slate this evening, and our analysts are all over it.
We have four bets total to recommend on three games, including Rays vs. Reds, Blue Jays vs. Astros and Mets vs. Dodgers.
Here are our best bets for the MLB slate on Monday, April 17.
Today's MLB Best Bets on Monday, April 17
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rays vs. Reds
Monday, April 17 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Rays Moneyline -145  |
By Nick Shlain
The Tampa Bay Rays got back to their winning ways on Sunday, defeating the Toronto Blue Jays on the road improving to 14-2. Tampa Bay continues its road trip in Cincinnati on Monday, and my favorite bet on the slate Monday is the Rays on the moneyline.
The Rays will be facing Cincinnati starter Hunter Greene in this one. Greene has a 5.14 ERA after three starts this season. He had a 4.44 ERA last season, but wasn’t so good at preventing power hitting against him.
Last year, Greene allowed a .184 ISO to left-handed hitters and a .213 ISO to right-handed hitters. That’s not going to get it done against Tampa Bay’s lineup right now as hitters like Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Wander Franco are locked in at the plate. Luke Raley, Harold Ramirez and Christian Betancourt are also hitting the ball hard these days.
Greene is coming off a good start where he struck out 10 batters and allowed just three earned runs over six innings against the Atlanta Braves, but he wasn’t able to complete five innings in either of his other two starts.
I like the matchup for Tampa Bay’s power hitters here and will be backing the Rays on the moneyline.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -145
Blue Jays vs. Astros
Monday, April 17 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 8 (-109)  |
With these two starting pitchers on the mound, I think the total is a tad too high. Kevin Gausman has gone three straight years with an xERA below 3.6 and last season had a Stuff+ of 109, which was 12th MLB and a Pitching+ also of 109, which was second in MLB. The reason why he’s so good is because his split finger is one of the best single pitches in baseball.
Last season, Gausman threw his split finger 35.5% of the time. It had a Stuff+ rating of 116, opposing hitters only had a .173 xBA and .200 xwOBA against it, and it also produced a whiff rate of 44.1%. The Astros against right-handed splitters last season had a .151 xBA and .158 xBA.
Cristian Javier is a darkhorse Cy Young candidate and was really good last season, posting a 2.43 xERA in 149 innings. He was ninth in Stuff+ at 116 and 15th in Pitching+ at 106. He’s a heavy fastball usage guy, which is a dangerous game to play against the Blue Jays, who obliterate fastballs, but he only allowed a .180 xBA and .272 xwOBA on it last season. His wipeout slider is so deadly, too. Last season, it produced a 39% whiff rate and opposing hitters only had a .126 xBA against it.
Last season, the Astros were the best bullpen in baseball. They were number one in xFIP, xERA, Pitching+, and Stuff+. Toronto was average in terms of xFIP, K-BB ratio, etc last season, but was top 10 in Pitching+.
I only have 7.49 runs projected for this game.
Pick: Under 8 (-109)
Blue Jays vs. Astros
Monday, April 17 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Astros Team Total Under 3.5  |
By Jim Turvey
We don't want to overreact to the small sample size of the regular season that we have so far too much, but the Houston Astros don't appear to be as invincible as they have been in seasons past, at least to start the 2023 season.
Most notably, the injuries they have suffered in their starting lineup have the offense far more pedestrian than it has been throughout this semi-dynasty. The Astros have a wRC+ of 101 so far, not bad, but down in 15th in the league, compared to their sixth-place ranking last year. Against right-handed pitchers, that number is even lower, coming in at a wRC+ of 96 that ranks 17th.
On Monday, they draw one of the toughest righties in baseball: Kevin Gausman. The FIP-lovers Cy Young winner last season is translating that potential success into actual success in 2023. The 32-year-old has a 1.35 ERA in his 20 innings this season, with a FIP (2.57) not far behind. His K-BB% is sixth in the league, and his pitching+ number ranks fifth among qualified pitchers.
In short, this is one of the league's best right-handed pitchers against a lineup that is struggling more than expected against that split this season.
If you're not a team total person (the fear of being able to lose the bet on one swing of the bat), I also like the under for the game as a whole. Gausman's opponent, Cristian Javier, hasn't been as sharp as last season so far in 2023, but it's not time to panic, and both bullpens are strong and relatively well-rested.
As for the direct team total, it's currently +106 at FanDuel, and I would play the under 3.5 to -110.
Pick: Astros Team Total Over 3.5
Mets vs. Dodgers
Monday, April 17 10:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 8.5 (-110) |
By Kenny Ducey
I really love fading David Peterson. The tall Mets lefty is 0-2 in three starts and really should be 0-3, considering he escaped with a no-decision in a start where he allowed five runs on five hits and five walks over four innings. That’s just a microcosm of his season, though; Peterson has been bad but could be even worse if not for his good fortune. He managed to allow eight hits over five innings his first outing of the season against the Marlins only to escape with one run charged to his line on a solo shot.
That’s why it’s always important to look at someone’s expected ERA and take it with a grain of salt. Peterson’s xERA of 4.61 would indicate to most that he’s been a bit unlucky to have a 4.91 ERA, but I’d argue it’s the complete opposite. It’s miraculous that hitters are .328 off of Peterson in 14 2/3 innings with a walk rate of 11.9%, yet the lefty has kept his ERA under five runs.
I really think we’re looking at one of the worst pitchers in the National League here, and with that I think we have a slugfest on our hands. There’s no team Peterson would want to face less than the Dodgers, who have walked at a ridiculous 15.9% clip against lefties so far this year with a spicy .222 ISO to go along with it. They walk and they convert contact into home runs – two things that may send Peterson back to the showers before the third inning begins.
If you want to continue talking luck, Dustin May’s low 17.6% strikeout rate, high 10.3% walk rate and poor 40.8% hard-hit rate aren’t very becoming of a pitcher sporting a 1.47 ERA. His fly ball rate is currently higher than it’s ever been, and while the Mets have struggled in the power department, they are 12th in home run-to-fly ball ratio. I trust a disciplined team like this to exploit May’s poor walk rate and finally get some of those big hits they’ve been hunting.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)
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