Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, June 24.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Rangers vs. Orioles, Braves vs. Mets, Yankees vs. Reds, and Cubs vs. Cardinals. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, June 24
Rangers vs. Orioles
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 10 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 10 -110o / -110u | -130 |
LHP Jacob Latz (TEX) vs. RHP Charlie Morton (BAL)
I bet the Under 9.5 in Monday’s edition of this game in similar conditions, with the total moving down despite 100-degree temperatures.
It’s the third career start for Rangers pitcher Jacob Latz (3.60 xERA, 4.03 xFIP, 3.67 botERA, 13.5% K-BB). He’s got decent stuff (104 Stuff+) and generates cheap outs with pop-ups (15.3%).
Orioles starting pitcher Charlie Morton has improved upon his xERA (4.19), but his strikeout minus walk rate and botERA are down.
The Rangers are in their better split against a right-handed pitcher, and they’re the better defensive team than the Orioles — the latter split becomes larger without defensive stalwart Adley Rutschman behind the plate.
I projected the Rangers ML at -110 and 9.39 runs for the game.
Pick: Rangers ML (+110 | Play to +101) | Under 10.5 (Play to 10 -115)
Braves vs. Mets
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 9 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9 -110o / -110u | +125 |
RHP Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. RHP Frankie Montas (NYM)
Mets starting pitcher Frankie Montas will make his debut after missing the first few months with a lat strain. He wasn’t great in rehab (6 GS, 18 ⅔ IP, 30 H, 25 R, 2 HBP, 10 BB, 12 K), but he noted he wasn’t worried about the numbers as much as re-finding his pitch mix.
Montas posted a 4.71 xERA, 4.26 xFIP, 4.65 botERA and 12.5% strikeout minus walk rate in 2024, and has a 2025 projected FIP range of 4.22 to 4.73.
Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider is rounding into form again (12 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 21 K, 2 BB over the past two starts). His velocity is back up across his pitches, and his botERA is back down to 3.55 over the past two outings.
Atlanta’s current lineup is arguably the best defensive team in MLB (+55 DRS, +14 OAA), with Matt Olson (+12 DRS, +8 OAA_) and Nick Allen (+10 DRS, + 12 OAA) leading the way.
I project 8.37 runs for this matchup, and the game fits our Action Labs Under Streaks system.
Pick: Under 9 (-107 | Play to -115)
Yankees vs. Reds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -165 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +135 |
LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. RHP Chase Burns (CIN)
Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns will make his MLB debut. The second overall pick in the 2024 draft out of Wake Forest pairs an elite, often-triple-digit fastball with a double-plus slider and plus-changeup. He was dominant in the Minors (13 GS, 66 IP, 0.77 WHIP, 36.7% K, 5.3% BB), drawing comparisons to Paul Skenes' minor league stint (12 GS, 34 IP, 0.94 WHIP, 41.3% K, 7.5% BB).
Meanwhile, Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon is wearing down in June (4.70 ERA, 4.21 xFIP, 17.7% K-BB).
The weather should be good for hitting (95 degrees, 102 real feel, slight breeze out to left field), and umpire Mark Wegner is a hitter-friendly guy (career 51.8% to the over, 3% boost to my run-scoring environment).
I project the Reds ML at +123 and 10.02 runs for the game.
Pick: Reds ML (+140 | Play to +134) | Over 9.5 (+105 | Play to -110)
Cubs vs. Cardinals
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 9 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 9 -110o / -110u | +100 |
RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC) vs. RHP Michael McGreevy (STL)
While the weather should be favorable for hitting in St. Louis, I still project only 8.33 runs for this game.
These are two of the top three defensive teams in my model, and this game fits our Action Labs Contrarian Unders For Winning Teams system.
Pick: Under 9 (-108 | Play to -118)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, June 24
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- Rangers ML (+110 | Play to +101)
- Reds ML (+140 | Play to +134)
- Blue Jays ML (-105 | Play to -110)
- Astros ML (-138 | Play to -145)
- Rangers vs. Orioles Under 10.5 (-120 | Play to 10 -115)
- Braves vs. Mets Under 9 (-107 | Play to -115)
- Yankees vs. Reds Over 9.5 (+105 | Play to -110)
- Cubs vs. Cardinals Under 9 (-108 | Play to -118)
