Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, September 2.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Mets vs. Tigers, White Sox vs. Twins, and Yankees vs. Astros. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, September 2
Mets vs. Tigers
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -135 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +110 |
RHP Nolan McLean (NYM) vs. RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long (DET)
Nolan McLean looks great, posting a 128 Stuff+ mark across his six-pitch arsenal (every pitch has a Stuff+ mark over 100). He’s posted a 2.58 xERA, 2.70 xFIP, and 3.50 botERA in a limited sample, and I think he’ll continue to outperform his projections (3.95 to 4.57 FIP range).
New York’s bats are white hot, posting a 143 wRC+ in August behind a franchise-record 177 runs and 53 homers.
Meanwhile, the Tigers are in their weaker offensive split against a right-handed pitcher.
I project the Mets F5 ML at -166.
Pick: Mets F5 ML (-132 | Play to -155)
White Sox vs. Twins
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -115o / -105u | -150 |
RHP Davis Martin (CWS) vs. RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (MIN)
The White Sox won their bullpen game on Monday, defeating the Twins 6-5 behind seven different pitchers who each recorded at least four outs. All seven pitchers were deployed for the third time in the past five days.
The White Sox bullpen is gassed.
These two starting pitchers are comparable in projections, and these two lineups are similar in production.
I’ll be on the Twins, but I may also target them live as the game moves into the latter innings.
I project the Twins ML at -166.
Pick: Twins ML (-144 | Play to -155)
Yankees vs. Astros
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -120 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +100 |
LHP Max Fried (NYY) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (HOU)
Both of these brand-name, high ground-ball rate, southpaw aces have had recent blowups and dips in underlying indicators.
Meanwhile, these are two of the best lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching. The Yankees lead MLB in wRC+ against the side (118), while the Astros rank fifth (110).
Both defenses can be messy, and the Houston bullpen has been shaky without Josh Hader.
I project this total at 8.4 runs.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110 | Play to 8 -105)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, September 2
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- Mets F5 ML (-132 | Play to -155)
- Twins ML (-144 | Play to -155)
- Yankees vs. Astros Over 7.5 (-110 | Play to 8 -105)
- Giants vs. Rockies Under 10.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
