Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, September 9.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Mets vs. Phillies, Tigers vs. Yankees, Cardinals vs. Mariners, and Diamondbacks vs. Giants. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, September 9
Mets vs. Phillies
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 100o / -120u | +110 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8.5 100o / -120u | -130 |
LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI)
The Phillies put Trea Turner (career 130 wRC+ vs. LHPs) and Alec Bohm (career 131 wRC+ vs. LHPs) on the IL this past Monday, and I had to downgrade the lineup against left-handed pitching significantly.
Meanwhile, the Mets have been dominant against left-handed pitching lately, posting an MLB-leading 164 wRC+ against the side over the past month.
I also prefer New York’s bullpen, as three of Philadelphia’s highest-leverage relievers have all pitched in three of the past five days (Robertson, Strahm, Duran).
Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea has been unlucky (5.60 ERA, 4.24 xERA, 3.19 xFIP) despite his career-best strikeout minus walk rate (25.3%), mainly because he’s running a super-high BABIP (.336) and super-low strand rate (67%).
I project the Mets ML at -109.
Pick: Mets ML (+115 | Play to +100)
Tigers vs. Yankees
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
RHP Casey Mize (DET) vs. RHP Will Warren (NYY)
This game triggered four Action Labs systems overnight, including this one:
The much-maligned Yankee bullpen actually ranks third among MLB relief units in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate over the past 30 days. Conversely, the Tigers’ bullpen ranks in the bottom 10 in those metrics during the same span.
We’re expecting cool temperatures (high 60s) and wind blowing in from center field, which will lower my projected total by about a half-run compared to a weather-neutral day in the Bronx.
I project 7.74 runs for this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to 8 +100)
Cardinals vs. Mariners
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +170 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -210 |
LHP Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs. RHP George Kirby (SEA)
The Cardinals triggered a profitable Action Labs betting system for underdogs off a loss, which has produced a 4.8% ROI for road ‘dogs in this spot.
George Kirby has struggled lately and has shown concerning signs in his 2025 indicators, including a career-worst 4.10 xERA and a 17.7% strikeout minus walk rate. His Stuff+ mark is down from 104 to 97, and his Pitching+ mark is down from 112 to 109.
The Cardinals also have a huge defensive edge, leading all MLB teams in OAA.
I project the Cardinals ML at +150.
Pick: Cardinals ML (+200 | Play to +165)
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
RHP Zac Gallen (ARI) vs. LHP Robbie Ray (SFG)
The starting pitching matchup between Zac Gallen and Robbie Ray is comparable, although Gallen has been sharper lately, as Ray is struggling with the length of the season.
Both teams are in their superior offensive split, and the wind is blowing out, so I lean toward the Over (projected at 7.53). However, umpire Doug Eddings is a pitcher-friendly manager (career 53.7% to the Under, +2.9% ROI).
I project the Diamondbacks ML at +110.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+132 | Play to +120)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, September 9
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- Mets ML (+115 | Play to +100)
- Cardinals ML (+200 | Play to +165)
- Diamondbacks ML (+132 | Play to +120)
- Tigers vs. Yankees Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to 8 +100)
