MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (April 17)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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Here are my favorite bets for Wednesday, April 17.

MLB Predictions Wednesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (April 17)

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks

Jordan Wicks vs. Brandon Pfaadt

Speaking of extra-inning games —and teams that won't get a breather on Thursday — the Cubs and Diamondbacks seem evenly matched. They have played a pair of dramatic extra-inning affairs, and the teams have accumulated 21 relief pitcher appearances in two nights.

Chicago's bullpen seems to be in a bit worse shape for Wednesday. Luke Little and Drew Smyly have worked on consecutive days, while closer Adbert Alzolay (who blew the save on Tuesday), Yency Almonte and Mark Leiter have pitched three times in four days. An appearance for Hector Neris would mark his fourth in five days.

I don't see where Chicago gets the innings behind Jordan Wicks (projected FIP range of 4.16 to 4.48; career 4.20 xFIP), who racks up high pitch counts with strikeouts and walks.

I view Brandon Pfaadt (projected FIP range of 3.91 to 4.63) as the superior starting pitcher by about half a run on an ERA projection. He is a Pitching+ darling (108 this season, 105 last year) who seemingly broke out in the 2023 postseason but has permitted 11 runs in his last 11 innings against the Braves and Cardinals.

Arizona's bullpen isn't quite as tired as Chicago's, although closer Kevin Ginkel, Miguel Castro (who pitched 2 1/3 innings on Tuesday) and Kyle Nelson have all worked on consecutive days. Scott McGough recorded five outs on 24 pitches on Tuesday, and an appearance from Joe Mantiply would mark his fourth in six days.

Ultimately, I projected the Snakes as -139 favorites for the first five innings (F5) and -131 favorites for the full game. Bet those moneylines to -127 and -122, respectively.

Normally, I'd be interested in betting over 9.5 with these exhausted bullpens. However, the Chase Field roof will be closed on Wednesday, knocking my projection down to 9.66 runs. I'd wait to bet over 9 pre-game or hunt for a better number live.

Bets: Diamondbacks F5 Moneyline (-128 or better) | Diamondbacks Moneyline (-121 or better) | Over 9 (-115 or better)

Angels vs. Rays

Reid Detmers vs. Zack Littell

Two-thirds of the league will have an off-day on Thursday before the weekend, but the Angels and Rays are in the midst of a four-game series and will need to find ways to conserve their bullpens over the next two days before traveling to Cincinnati and New York, respectively.

The teams played a grueling 13-inning affair on Tuesday after Jose Caballero hit a game-tying two-run triple in the bottom of the ninth inning. Ultimately, the final score aligned with the number of relief pitchers each team deployed (7-6 Rays).

Jason Adam and Phil Maton have worked in both games of this series for Tampa Bay. Otherwise, Garrett Cleavinger (26 pitches) was the only Tampa reliever to work particularly hard on Wednesday.

The Angels bullpen is a bit worse for wear. Closer Carlos Estevez, Matt Moore and Luis Garcia have pitched in both games. Jose Cisnero pitched two innings — and for the third time in five days — after working in long relief (62 pitches) on Sunday. Additionally, Adam Cimber pitched on Monday and Tuesday — an appearance on Wednesday would mark his third in four days. Lastly, Carson Fulmer threw 27 pitches on Tuesday.

While I project Reid Detmers as a superior starting pitcher to Zach Littell, I project an even more significant advantage for the Rays bullpen in late innings.

I projected Tampa Bay as a -141 favorite and set the total at 8.96 runs. Bet the Rays to -130 and play the over up to 8.5 (-107). I'd also look for a live over of 6.5 or 7.

Bets: Rays Moneyline (-130 or better) | Over 8 (8.5, -107 or better) 

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Guardians vs. Red Sox

Ben Lively vs. Tanner Houck

The Guardians and Red Sox are coming off an extra-inning game like the Angels and Rays. They will also play one another through Thursday and need to figure out how to manage their weary bullpens.

Both teams deployed six relievers on Tuesday.

Boston has used three arms — Brennan Bernardino, Josh Winckowski and Greg Weissert — in the first two games of this series and let Joely Rodriguez handle two innings (34 pitches) on Tuesday.

Additionally, Kenley Jansen blew the save, and if he pitched on Wednesday, it would mark his third appearance in four days.

After he pitched on Monday, Cleveland used Eli Morgan for two innings (29 pitches) on Tuesday. Scott Barlow, Tyler Beede and Cade Smith made their third appearances in four days. If either Emmanuel Clase or Hunter Gaddis pitches on Wednesday, it would also be their third appearance in four days.

Tanner Houck has shown drastic splits throughout his career (3.34 xFIP vs. righties, 4.08 vs. lefties). Cleveland can stack up to eight left-handed — or switch-hitting — bats against him.

Houck has permitted a .918 OPS when facing the order for a third time (.572 OPS the first time through, .702 the second time through), and Boston needs him to eat some innings.

Ben Lively (5.38 ERA, 5.03 xERA, 4.42 xFIP in 2023) projects as a replacement-level arm (projected FIP range of 4.65 to 4.99) and may pitch deeper into this game than expected.

I projected Wednesday's total at 9.85 runs — bet the over up to 9.5 (-104).

Bets: Over 9 (9.5, -104 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Wednesday, April 17

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• Arizona Diamondbacks F5 Spread +0.5 (-140, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to -163)
• Arizona Diamondbacks F5 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -127)
• Arizona Diamondbacks (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -122)
• Arizona Diamondbacks / Chicago Cubs, Over 9 (-106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
• Baltimore Orioles (+105, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -112)
• Cleveland Guardians / Boston Red Sox, Over 9 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9.5, -104)
• Kansas City Royals / Chicago White Sox Game 1, Over 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 9, -112)
• Houston Astros (+132, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +125)
• Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-200, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to -225)
• New York Mets F5 (-132, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -155)
• New York Mets (-132, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel & (-150, 0.25u) at Superbook (bet to -155)
• New York Yankees / Toronto Blue Jays, Over 8 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to 8.5, -103)
• Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-198, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -212)
• Philadelphia Phillies / Colorado Rockies, Under 8 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -113)
• San Diego Padres F5 (-110, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -118)
• San Diego Padres / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 9 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -124 or 8.5, -105)
• San Francisco Giants F5 (-104, 0.25u) at Superbook (bet to -112)
• San Francisco Giants (+104, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to -111)
• Seattle Mariners F5 (-125, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -130)
• Seattle Mariners (-127, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -136)
• Tampa Bay Rays (-125, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -130)
• Tampa Bay Rays / Los Angeles Angels, Over 8 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 8.5, -107)
• Texas Rangers (+135, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +128)
• Washington Nationals / Los Angeles Dodgers, Over 9 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -118)