Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, June 11.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Tigers vs. Orioles, Nationals vs. Mets, Rays vs. Red Sox, and White Sox vs. Astros. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, June 11
Tigers vs. Orioles
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 9 -110o / -110u | -110 |
RHP Casey Mize (DET) vs. Zach Eflin (BAL)
The Orioles welcomed back Cedric Mullins and Jordan Westburg on Tuesday after Colton Cowser returned last week. The lineup looks as deep and dangerous as it has all season — while they’ve hit to a 97 wRC+ on the year, they’ve hit to a 104 wRC+ over the past week, and I project this current lineup for a 112 wRC+.
Conversely, I project the current Tigers lineup to post a 104 wRC+, although they’ve hit to a 107 wRC+ on the year.
Orioles starting pitcher Zach Eflin has been unlucky (4.47 ERA, 3.57 xERA) and has looked much sharper in his past two outings (13 IP, 3 ER, 13 K, 1 BB).
Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize is having a breakout season (2.91 ERA, 3.25 xERA), but his strikeout minus walk rate is near the MLB average (13.8%), and he’s looked shaky in two of his three starts since an IL stint (8 IP, 5 ER, 14 H, 7 K, 6 BB).
Ultimately, I prefer Mize, but these are two comparable starting pitchers by FIP projections (4.00 to 4.34 for Mize, 3.92 to 4.50 for Eflin).
Meanwhile, the Orioles' bullpen has been borderline elite over the past month, ranking among the top five MLB relief units in xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate — a stat in which the Tigers rank bottom 11 during the stretch.
I project the Orioles ML at -129.
Pick: Orioles ML (-108 | Play to -118)
Nationals vs. Mets
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +105 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -125 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
RHP Jake Irvin (WSN) vs. LHP David Peterson (NYM)
The weather should be more hitter-friendly in Queens on Wednesday than it was on Tuesday, with 81-degree temperatures and double-digit winds out toward right field.
With the weather factored in, I project nine runs for this matchup.
The Mets' offense has been white-hot, posting a 159 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks and a 119 over the past month. Juan Soto has seen some positive regression (.359 wOBA, .436 xwOBA), having hit four homers in the past 10 games. Jeff McNeil has found his stroke (.342 xwOBA), and Pete Alonso is putting together a career year (.421 wOBA, .438 xwOBA).
Nationals starting pitcher Jake Irvin is vulnerable (4.02 ERA, 5.17 xERA, 8.5% K-BB), especially now that his velocity and stuff numbers have dipped (92.1 MPH, 94 Stuff+).
Projections would sell on Mets starting pitcher David Peterson (2.80 ERA, 3.77 xERA, 3.77-to-4.03 projected FIP range). He’s on pace for a career-high ground-ball rate (56.9%), but his strikeout minus walk rate is still around the league average (13.4%), and he has subpar advanced pitch modeling metrics (90 Stuff+, 4.43 botERA). He’s also been lucky with home run avoidance (8.2% HR/FB rate) and is due to give up one with ducks on the pond soon.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
Rays vs. Red Sox
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 10 -105o / -125u | -105 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 10 -105o / -125u | -115 |
RHP Zack Littell (TBR) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (BOS)
Both teams were able to reset their bullpens on Tuesday after using several high-leverage relievers on short rest on Monday.
Still, Rays starting pitcher Zack Littell has been lucky and is due for regression (3.70 ERA, 4.30 xERA, .353 BABIP, 86% strand rate) — he’s always been home run prone.
Red Sox starting pitcher Walker Buehler also has home run problems, and he hasn’t been good this season (5.18 ERA, 4.78 xERA).
Tampa’s offense is underrated, posting a 118 wRC+ with MLB’s best Baserunning value since Josh Lowe returned on May 15th.
Boston’s offense has hit to a 109 wRC+ over the same span, but the youth movement is underway. I’m relatively bullish on Roman Anthony (99-to-105 projected wRC+), Kristian Campbell (98-to-108), Marcelo Mayer (88-to-93) and Ceddanne Rafaela (who has doubled his walk rate, shaved his strikeout rate, and has posted an MLB-average barrel rate with elite baserunning).
The weather should be hitter-friendly at Fenway on Wednesday, with 78-degree temperatures and eight MPH winds blowing out toward right field.
I project 10.6 runs for this game.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-120 | Bet to 10 -115)
White Sox vs. Astros
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +150 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -185 |
RHP Sean Burke (CWS) vs. RHP Ryan Gusto (HOU)
I’ll keep fading Houston’s offense when it faces right-handed starting pitchers, as the Astros have severe splits (97 wRC+ against righties, 123 wRC+ against southpaws).
White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke was sharp in Spring Training, but he’s struggled in the regular season (4.69 ERA, 5.67 xFIP, 2.8% K-BB). That said, he’s been much better across his past three outings, posting three quality starts after doubling his changeup usage. His fastball is effective, but he needs to develop some additional secondary pitches.
Astros starting pitcher Ryan Gusto is the opposite. He was sharp in April (3.00 ERA, 3.51 xFIP), but has been walloped in May and June (7.71 ERA, 6.43 xFIP). That said, pitching models still like him despite the shaky results (99 Stuff+, 4.28 botERA over the past five weeks) behind a plus fastball (105 Stuff+), slider (110) and sinker (111).
I project 7.85 runs for this matchup, and the Under fits our Action Labs Under Streak betting system.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, June 11
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Blue Jays ML (+126 | Play to +120)
- Orioles ML (-108 | Play to -118)
- Reds vs. Guardians Over 8.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
- Nationals vs. Mets Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
- Rays vs. Red Sox Over 9.5 (-120 | Play to 10 -115)
- Rangers vs. Twins Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
- White Sox vs. Astros Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to -115)
