MLB PrizePicks Today, Featuring Francisco Lindor, Bobby Witt Jr on Tuesday, April 18
Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Bobby Witt Jr.
We have a stacked 17-game slate of baseball on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Francisco Lindor Fantasy Score More Than 7
The Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets in the second installment of this three-game series. Slated to take the mound for Los Angeles is future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, who we are going to fade.
While his surface-level stats are not terrible, the left-hander has not looked all that sharp despite his 2-1 record and 3.50 ERA. His underlying metrics confirm this sentiment as Kershaw ranks in the 43rd percentile or lower in xBA, xSLG and Barrel% this year.
The first Mets hitter to back in this contest is Francisco Lindor, who is off to a powerful start in 2023. This season, he boasts a .246 BA, .561 SLG, and .932 OPS with four home runs.
Particularly succeeding against left-handed pitching this year, the switch hitting shortstop possesses a .296 BA, .741 SLG and 1.128 OPS when facing southpaws. Also a threat to swipe a bag on the base paths, there are numerous avenues for Lindor to score more than seven fantasy points.
Pete Alonso Fantasy Score More Than 7.5
In a play with some solid correlation, we are going to back the guy who hits directly behind Lindor in the batting order. Leading MLB in home runs this season with eight, first baseman Pete Alonso has posted a .267 BA, .683 SLG and 1.054 OPS through this tremendous start to the campaign.
His underlying metrics suggest that further positive regression is likely for the first baseman, which is shocking given how incredible his surface-level stats are. This season, Alonso has produced a .335 xBA, .751 xSLG, and .490 xwOBA.
This great start could continue against Kerhsaw. Through Alonso's six career plate appearances against the left-hander, he boasts a .574 xBA, .648 xSLG and .640 xwOBA.
Possessing the advantageous righty-versus-lefty matchup, Alonso possesses a dominating .360 BA, .880 SLG, and 1.328 OPS against southpaws this season.
Bobby Witt Jr. Fantasy Score Less Than 7.5
The Kansas City Royals host the Texas Rangers in the second installment of this three-game series. We are going to fade a couple of Kansas City hitters as right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is slated to take the mound for Texas.
Through three starts this season, Eovaldi is 1-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. While those surface-level stats are obviously terrible, his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is looming.
In 2023, Eovaldi ranks in the 58th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel%, Whiff% and Fastball Spin. The first Royals hitter to fade in this contest is shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.
While Witt Jr. thrived against Eovaldi in their recent matchup, regression is likely. Eovaldi's ability to limit barreled baseballs should be especially beneficial against the right-handed Witt, who ranks in the 39th percentile in Barrel%.
There is reason to believe Witt Jr. will get a hit or two in this contest, but 7.5 is far too high of a number for a relatively average hitter.
Salvador Perez Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
The other Kansas City hitter to fade in this contest is catcher Salvador Perez. It has been an extremely disappointing start to the campaign for Perez, who possesses a mere .233 BA, .383 SLG and .641 OPS.
This poor start is likely to continue against Eovaldi, a guy whom Perez cannot figure out. Through 15 career plate appearance against the right-hander, he is just 2-for-15 with two singles and seven strikeouts.
That stat line should not be all that surprising given that Perez has always struggled against right-handers. Since 2021, his splits take a roughly 20% dip when facing right-handed pitching to a .254/.476/.768 slash line.
Failing to hit the ball hard this year, Perez ranks in the 47th percentile or lower in both HardHit% and Average Exit Velocity.
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