The Seattle Mariners host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 7, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Mariners are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by+1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +102 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Mariners Prediction
- Rays vs Mariners Pick: Rays ML (+105) | Play to -110
My Rays vs Mariners best bet is on Tampa Bay to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Mariners Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +180 | 7 -104o / -118u | +102 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -220 | 7 -104o / -118u | -112 |
- Rays vs Mariners moneyline: Rays +102, Mariners -112
- Rays vs Mariners over/under: 7 (-104o / -118u)
- Rays vs Mariners spread: Rays -1.5 (+180), Mariners +1.5 (-220)
Rays vs Mariners Probable Pitchers
| RHP Drew Rasmussen (TBR) | Stat | RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | W-L | 8-6 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.7 |
| 2.91 / 3.14 | ERA / xERA | 3.46 / 3.63 |
| 3.01 / 3.14 | FIP / xFIP | 3.41 / 3.47 |
| 22.1% | K-BB% | 21.3% |
| 44.7% | GB% | 38.2% |
| .256 | BABIP | .258 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 109 | Location+ | 105 |
Rays vs Mariners MLB Betting Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The American League East-leading Rays will throw Drew Rasmussen once again on Friday, aiming for a fourth straight win to open up a west-coast road trip.
The right-hander has been one of the very best in baseball for a second straight year, compiling a 2.91 ERA and 0.93 WHIP across 117 1/3 innings. He had a very rough month of July, posting a 6.05 ERA with two brutal starts against the Astros and Yankees, but he's settled back down brilliantly since then with 19 total strikeouts across 13 scoreless innings in his last two outings, coming against Cleveland and the White Sox.
Now, Rasmussen will get to face a Mariners team that has cratered a bit offensively, ranking just 14th in wRC+ over the last two weeks. They're hitting just .237 over that span with a measly .137 Isolated Power, striking out in a poor 22.3% of plate appearances as well.
Rasmussen has operated primarily as a ground-ball pitcher over the course of his career, but this season he's been geared a bit more towards the sky, with his rate of contact through the air reaching a career high at 54.3%. Interestingly, the majority of Rasmussen's batted balls that avoid the dirt have been line drives, not fly balls, and they've seemingly hung up long enough for the second-best outfield by Outs Above Average to come up with plenty of catches.
The Mariners own the sixth-highest line drive rate in baseball and six 16th in fly balls, giving Rasmussen what would appear to be a solid matchup against a team that doesn't threaten to change how he's pitched.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
The Mariners haven't had the same kind of run as their opponents, losing two of their last three and five of their last eight, but they sit just three games out of first place in the AL West. All hope isn't lost, and that's especially true with Logan Gilbert toeing the slab to begin this three-game set against the Rays.
Gilbert hasn't exactly been dominant this season, but he's been pretty damn good. He's nowhere near his heavy 32.3% strikeout rate from a season ago — but that's a hard feat for anyone to match. At 26.6%, he's still better than average, and his 5.4% walk rate is certainly well better than the league norm.
The right-hander hasn't had a shutdown month this year, but he's remained consistent throughout, failing to blow up in any of them. He's coming off his worst month, where he allowed a 3.51 ERA in four starts this July, but he struck out 26 in 25 2/3 innings to five walks and allowed just one homer.
That's critical for Gilbert, whose 17 home runs allowed rank seventh in the AL, and who'd allowed 25 homers on average the past three seasons entering 2026. He's a heavy fly-ball arm at 28.9% — 4.7 points higher than average — and he's also well above the league average in lift and pull allowed.
Unfortunately, as we'll get to below, this doesn't seem to be the best matchup on paper for Gilbert, who takes on a Rays team hitting for more power and striking out far less than Seattle — and it's one that loves to hit the ball in the air.
Rays vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
This one really couldn't be set up any better for the road team. The Rays are ranked just 18th in OPS to ground-ballers this year as opposed to fourth-best against fly-ballers, hitting .259 in the split. They're not really a power-hitting team, ranking 26th in ISO this season, but they've turned it on lately with a .162 ISO in the last two weeks.
This is a Rays team that doesn't strike out a ton and doesn't wait around for walks, meaning this split should have great meaning against Gilbert. Without those timely punchouts, he could very well be in danger here — and more contact means his outfield, ranked third-worst in OAA — will be put to the test time and time again on Friday.
On the flip side, Rasmussen would seem to be in a great spot here, pitching behind an excellent outfield defense which should have plenty of time to catch the lazy line drives hanging up in the Seattle air. Neither guy really projects to blow away the opposition with strikeouts, so we'll have to play the guy who should have the easier time on contact — and in my mind Rasmussen's the no-brainer.
Pick: Rays ML (+105) | Play to -110
