We’re going to be trying something different at Action Network this season.
Minor League baseball is an inefficient market. I’ve been betting on Triple-A ball since 2021, and the market has become widely available enough that I was able to provide picks to my subscribers last season — I went a documented 112-81-8 (58%) for a 51.7-unit profit.
You can still get most of my Triple-A picks over at WagerTalk, but I’m going to start publishing an Minor League baseball column here at Action Network on Tuesdays and Fridays, previewing the week and weekend ahead while providing some actionable insights.
Minor League Baseball Best Bets
Durham Bulls @ Charlotte Knights
Friday, 7:04 PM ET
Durham has gone through some predictable regression over the past week and a half (5-5 over the past 10 games) after an insane start to the second half (18-7).
But I think the prices on Charlotte are way too inflated.
I’ve praised Charlotte’s Triple-A depth this season, as the Knights have been above-average no matter who is in the lineup. But Rikuu Nishida has gone cold, and Nolan Jones was moved at the deadline. As a result, the Knights put out a brutal lineup yesterday, and I don’t see that team playing above .500 ball.
I think the Bulls win the pitching battle in this matchup. Both teams used the bullpen heavily in the doubleheader on Wednesday, but the Bulls used mostly depth arms, while the Knights used three of their better arms.
Durham might go with a bullpen game on Saturday, which would be an appealing spot to back the Bulls, given some of their best pitchers are relievers (Ty Johnson, Alexander Alberto).
The final thing I will point out here is the Rays recently acquired Jack Suwinski and optioned him down to Durham. This hasn’t been a great Durham lineup this season, so the addition of Suwinski may have just given Durham a new top hitter. He’s certainly a boost to that Bulls lineup.
Pick: Durham Bulls ML (+105, bet365) | Durham Bulls +1.5 (-160, bet365)
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp @ Gwinnett Stripers
Friday, 7:05 PM ET
Jacksonville rotates its lineup as much as any team in Triple-A, so I still don’t think we have seen the top lineup for the Jumbo Shrimp since some of the new additions showed up.
Brayden Taylor was just called up while Cam Cannarella was recently called up, and the big splash here (as far as Triple-A baseball is concerned) is Jonathan Long coming over in a trade with the Cubs. Add in Deyvison De Los Santos, who is finally starting to hit, and Graham Pauley, who seems to be the odd man out right now at the big league level, and suddenly the Shrimp have an ultra-impressive lineup.
That’s notable because Jacksonville enters play 55-54 and the clear strength (and reason the Jumbo Shrimp are currently over .500) has been pitching.
Now that it looks like Jacksonville might hit a little bit, it becomes far more appealing to back some of the Marlins' young starters with big upside.
Karson Milbrandt (Saturday) and Jace Beck (Sunday) have both shown flashes of turning the corner of late, which is huge because, stuff-wise, the expectation is both of these guys are on the big league squad probably by next season.
The problem with Jacksonville is, to this point, you pretty much know you have a quality starter and good bullpen arms, but the big question is will you get any offense from the Shrimp bats.
That’s certainly still a question (they were shut out last night), but I think when you look at the players mentioned in the previous paragraph and throw Kemp Alderman (highly touted call-up from last year) into the mix, it’s hard to believe this team doesn’t start hitting.
If Jacksonville does start to hit, I think there will be a direct correlation between that and the Jumbo Shrimp winning a slew of games, and I’ll call on that to start this weekend.
Pick: Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (-120, bet365)
Trigger's Top Triple-A Plays for Tuesday
- Durham Bulls ML (+105, bet365)
- Durham Bulls +1.5 (-160, bet365)
- Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp ML (-120, bet365)
To keep up with any Minor League baseball bets I make, be sure to follow me in the Action Network App.
How To Bet on Triple-A
The first thing you need to understand about exploiting the Triple-A market is that it’s still a developmental league.
The players range from MLB-ready prospects to 30-plus-year-old journeymen trying to make it back to the show. You also have a handful of guys who likely top out at Triple-A but are good for organizational depth.
It’s also worth mentioning that 14 players on the Triple-A roster are also on the MLB 40-man roster, and these guys are constantly moving up and down from the big leagues.
All this makes each roster dynamic and volatile.
Bookmakers track the big names (e.g., Konnor Griffin) but can’t keep up with all the roster moves on a day-to-day basis. They also struggle to track the “developmental” aspect of everyone needing to play.
Lineups will look different day to day, and that’s primarily where I find my edge. This edge will become more pronounced as the season progresses, as I have a much greater bias toward in-season data and need a larger sample size to detect actionable wagers.
It’s worth noting that the Triple-A series consists of weekly six-game series that run Tuesday through Sunday. Additionally, every game is televised on MiLB.TV, which you can get as part of your MLB.TV subscription or directly at milb.com.
