Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Kev has that job for Friday, August 7.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Zac Thornton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+109)
- Angels Moneyline (+132)
- Rockies/Cardinals Under 9 (-104)
New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick
Zac Thornton (formerly Zach Thornton) is having a solid start to his MLB career. He has a 2.88 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through six starts.
Unfortunately, his peripheral stats are below average. His xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all above 4.00 due to his mediocre 10.4% K-BB.
Thornton's 17.9% K is close to league average, but he still has a good shot to pass his strikeout line today. The Pirates' team K% against left-handed starters is the third-highest in baseball (25.6%), while their offense ranks sixth-worst against LHP.
Thornton has only crossed this line in three of his six starts, but he has hit up to seven strikeouts in a game. The Pirates' offense has been depleted lately with injuries to Konnor Griffin and Ryan O'Hearn.
Also, Pittsburgh's offense is struggling as a whole in the past 30 days. They have the sixth-worst offense in baseball and the second-highest K% overall.
The Pirates only start one lefty in their lineup against LHP, and that is a bonus for Thornton. His K% against RHH (20.9%) is higher than his K% against LHH (12.5%)
Picks: Zac Thornton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)
Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins Pick
George Klassen deserves a little more respect than being an underdog against Tyler Phillips. Yes, Klassen has an 11.57 ERA in his two MLB starts, but that is through 4 2/3 innings several months ago.
Also, those two starts were not easy. One was in Cincinatti's bandbox home park, while the other was against a Mariners' offense that ranked top-10 against RHP.
Klassen in Triple-A since July: 2.48 ERA, 19.1% K-BB, 0.99 WHIP, 3.51 FIP
The 24-year-old Klassen is one of the better pitching prospects in baseball and seems ready for another shot in the big leagues.
Meanwhile, his opponent, Tyler Phillips, is well below average despite a quality 3.53 ERA. He has a 4.75 xERA, 4.58 xFIP, and 4.72 SIERA, suggesting regression is coming soon.
Both the Angels and Marlins were sellers at the deadline, yet only the Marlins' offense took a significant hit. Losing Liam Hicks is a huge blow for Miami, given his 119 wRC+ with them this season and 141 wRC+ against RHP.
Both offenses have produced similarly in the past 30 days. Furthermore, Jo Adell's 89 wRC+ this season was well below his recent seasons. Moving on from his 63 wRC+ against RHP may actually benefit the Angels in games like today.
Los Angeles's bullpen is depleted following the losses of Kirby Yates and Ryan Zeferjahn, but they have fireballer Ben Joyce back from the IL and some young arms producing in recent weeks.
Picks: Angels ML (+132)
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick
The Rockies are notoriously slow offensively in their first game away from Coors due to the significant elevation change.
It will also not help their offense to face a red-hot Kyle Leahy. A putrid 5.19 xERA backs his 3.44 ERA, but recent starts have Leahy looking like one of the best starters in baseball.
Leahy since June 17: 1.66 ERA, 3.14 xERA, 3.43 xFIP, 17.6% K-BB, 0.95 WHIP
He has also had much better success at home, with a 2.95 ERA and .304 wOBA allowed through 55 IP.
Opposing SP Ryan Feltner has pitched much worse this season (5.75 ERA), while not improving away from Coors. However, he can pitch deep into games, with at least 6 IP in 6 of 16 starts.
Neither the Rockies' starting pitcher nor bullpen is good, but the Cardinals' offense is struggling lately.
Both the Cardinals and Rockies rank bottom-10 against RHP this season, while both offenses rank as the two-worst in baseball across the past 30 days.
Picks: Under 9 (-104)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, August 7
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- Zac Thornton Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+109)
- Angels ML (+132)
- Rockies/Cardinals Under 9 (-104)
