MLB PrizePicks Today, Featuring Adley Rutschman & Luis Arraez (Tuesday, May 23)
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Adley Rutschman.
We have a stacked 15-game MLB slate on Tuesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Tuesday's MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Bryan De La Cruz Fantasy Score More Than 8.5
The second installment of this three-game set gets underway on Tuesday evening with the Colorado Rockies hosting the Miami Marlins. Slated to take the mound for Colorado is left-hander Austin Gomber, who is an excellent fade candidate at Coors Field.
Through nine starts, Gomber is 3-4 with a 6.70 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. While those surface-level stats are terrible, his underlying metrics also suggest positive regression is highly unlikely.
He currently ranks in the sixth percentile or worse in xERA,xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Chase Rate. The first Marlins hitter to back in this contest is Bryan De La Cruz, who has been going nuclear at the dish.
Entering this matchup in tremendous form, De La Cruz has flown past this number in six of his past nine games. He is averaging 13.3 fantasy points per game over that stretch.
This trend is likely to continue against Gomber. When facing left-handed pitching, De La Cruz's splits jump by roughly 16% to a .344 BA, .500 SLG and .864 OPS.
Luis Arraez Fantasy Score More Than 8.5
In a play with solid correlation, we are going to back the guy who hits two spots ahead of De La Cruz in the batting order. Luis Arraez is off to a monster start in 2023, leading the league with a spectacular .382 BA while boasting a terrific .478 SLG and .915 OPS.
His underlying metrics are outstanding, ranking in the 73rd percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, K% and Whiff%. The one concern with Arraez is that his numbers drop when facing left-handed pitching.
However, even with that "drop," he still boasts a .343 BA, .343 SLG and .704 OPS. Keeping in mind that this game will be played at Coors Field, the ball should be flying around the park, especially with Gomber on the mound.
Cedric Mullins Fantasy Score Less Than 6
A three-game AL East series is set to get underway with the New York Yankees hosting the Baltimore Orioles. Gerrit Cole is slated to take the mound for New York, and he should once again be an excellent candidate to back.
Through 10 starts, Cole is 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Once again, the former first overall pick is on his way to the Cy Young conversation.
The first Orioles hitter to fade in this contest is Cedric Mullins. While Mullins' surface-level stats suggest he is putting together a tremendous campaign, his underlying metrics point out regression is looming.
Currently, he ranks in the 46th percentile or lower in HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and Barrel%. This expected regression could come to fruition against Cole. Mullins possesses a .364 SLG and .297 wOBA through 22 career plate appearances against Cole.
Adley Rutschman Fantasy Score Less Than 5.5
The other Baltimore hitter to fade is Adley Rutschman. While Rutschman is obviously a stud, going against Cole is no easy task.
Through seven career plate appearances against the right-hander, he is just 1-for-7 with two strikeouts. Additionally, he does not enter this game in the best form after falling beneath this number in each of his past two games.
While Rutschman versus Cole is a clash between one of the league's best hurlers and best up-and-comers, I am going to back the veteran who has held Rutschman to just one hit across seven plate appearances.
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