MLB Player Props Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Freddy Peralta Against the Cubs (April 10)
Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Freddy Peralta #51 of the Milwaukee Brewers
The weekend got off to an excellent start as David Peralta had a big day for us, and the Justin Steele under was certainly a sweat. It’s nice to think we were a JD Martinez walk away from a sweep.
However, yesterday is gone, and today there are a pair of punchout totals to target and another lefty who is sure to rake. So let’s dive into the best props for this wonderful Sunday slate.
Our Action Labs Props tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Tarik Skubal Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
|Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers||White Sox -125|
|First Pitch||1:10 p.m. ET|
After an up-and-down rookie campaign, Tarik Skubal showed some strides made in the spring. However, he’ll need to flash some offseason changes as he’ll face a division rival that has given him trouble in his young career.
The young lefty is set to face the Chicago White Sox, and they were particularly good against left-handed pitching last season. They finished 2021 with the seventh-highest batting average against lefties, and attacking Skubal was a big factor.
In 49 plate appearances, the current White Sox are hitting .326 and slugging .500 against Skubal. There are plenty of threats in the Chicago lineup that are good against lefties, and they will see the return of their starting shortstop, Tim Anderson. He’s a big problem for Skubal at the top of the lineup as the former AL Batting Title winner is hard to put away.
Skubal has a ton of intrigue surrounding him today as he flashed the upside the Detroit brass saw in him as a former top prospect. However, for all of Skubal’s spring success, he did not stretch out past four innings and will likely be limited.
He won’t be missing many bats today.
Pick: Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
|New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals||Mets -135|
|First Pitch||1:35 p.m. ET|
Erick Fedde is entering his second full season as a part of the Nationals rotation, and his first one did not go all that well. In 2021, Fedde posted a 5.47 ERA with a .268 opponent batting average. That average is compiled from a lot of hard contact as Fedde was in the bottom third of the league in Hard-Hit Rate and Barrel Rate.
Here he’ll be facing a Mets lineup that is more apt to expose Fedde’s real weakness, lefties. In his career, Fedde has allowed left-handers to hit .290, and they have a .352 wOBA against him.
I’m targeting Jeff McNeil to be the next lefty to have a good day against Fedde. In 14 plate appearances, McNeil is hitting .417 against Fedde. The Flying Squirrel has gotten off to a great start at the plate this season, and he should build on that success here.
Pick: Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
|Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs||Brewers -120|
|First Pitch||2:20 p.m. ET|
We’ve been waiting for a good pitching performance from the talented Brewers rotation. Unfortunately, Corbin Burnes took too long to settle down and got outdueled on Opening Day. Then Brandon Woodruff had command issues that led to a dreadful outing.
However, Peralta is the stopper whom the Brewers desperately need. Last season, he put it all together to post a 2.81 ERA and averaged of 12 strikeouts per nine innings. In particular, he also dominated the Cubs last season, as he had eight or more strikeouts in his four starts against them.
According to Inside Edge, Peralta’s excellent fastball-slider combination is set to give the Cubs fits as Wilson Contreras and Ian Happ both struggle with fastballs away. Peralta has also maintained a 29 percent K Rate in his career against the current Cubs lineup.
Lastly, Our Action Labs projection has Peralta pegged for 6.6 strikeouts in this matchup, giving us a six percent edge.
Pick: Peralta Over 5.5 Strikouts (-140)
Action Labs Grade: 7
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