MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Lucas Giolito and Corey Dickerson (Sunday, September 4)
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Lucas Giolito
Yesterday we went 1-1 as Corbin Burnes was not sharp, leaving us two strikeouts away from sweeping the board. For Sunday’s slate, I’m dialed in on two guys who have been heating up of late, and the market has yet to give them their due respect. So let’s find out who they are and how we’re betting them right now.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Lucas Giolito Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
|Twins vs. White Sox||White Sox -135|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: -155||DraftKings|
Once again, we’re getting another starter who is being massively undervalued in the strikeout department. I get that the Twins don’t strike out all that often, as they come in with the 19th-highest Strikeout Rate in the majors. However, that has not been the case against Giolito.
Surprisingly, Giolito has only had one start against Minnesota this season, but he was excellent in that outing as he struck out nine Twins in just four innings of work.
While we may not have much of a sample size from this season, we do have history in our corner. The Twins have complied 110 total at-bats against Lucas Giolito and are hitting just .182 with a 23.2 percent Strikeout Rate.
Lastly, we have seen Giolito blow past this total frequently this year. In fact, he’s gone over this total in 75 percent of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -300 that he will go over 4.5 strikeouts again this afternoon.
Pick: Over 4.5 -155
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Corey Dickerson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+155)
|Cubs vs. Cardinals||Cardinals -180|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: +155||DraftKings|
The Cardinals have been the best offensive club in the second half, and Corey Dickerson has been a big reason for that. In his last seven games, Dickerson is hitting .348 with an .826 OPS.
He’s in a great spot to stay hot this afternoon as he’s set to face Marcus Stroman. Dickerson has owned Stroman over the course of his career as the two have squared off 44 times, and thus far, Dickerson is hitting .432 with a 1.194 OPS off Stroman. That OPS is through the roof because of his 19 hits, five have been doubles, and three of them have been homers.
We have seen Stroman give up his fair share of extra-base hits this season. As a result, he comes into this matchup ranking in the bottom 10 percent of the majors in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate. In addition, his xBA and xSLG also rank in the bottom 30 percent of the league.
Given how hot Dickerson has been and his excellent history against Stroman, he should do damage again today.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases +155
Action Labs Grade: 10/10