MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Jeffery Springs and Christian Yelich (Sunday, September 18)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Yelich #22 of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Yesterday, we broke even as Godly came up one base shy of cashing his prop. However, that’s all history now, and I’ve got two more players who are in sneaky good spots to succeed this afternoon. So let’s find out who they are and how we’re betting them as we close out this weekend on a high note.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jeffrey Springs Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
|Rangers vs. Rays||Rays -200|
|First Pitch||1:10 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: -110||DraftKings|
Jeffrey Springs has been a revelation for the Tampa Bay Rays rotation. The 29-year-old lefty has made 21 starts after beginning the season in the bullpen and has been nearly flawless. He enters this afternoon’s outing with a 2.41 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. However, what’s most impressive about his game is that he can rack up strikeouts despite not having overpowering stuff.
He dominates right-handed hitters as his fastball-change-up combo has become one of the best in baseball. He’ll work righties almost exclusively with those two pitches, and righties have accounted for 101 of his 124 strikeouts on the season.
Fortunately, today he’s matched up against a Texas Rangers lineup that has plenty of free-swinging righties but also features lefties like Kole Calhoun and Nate Lowe, who also have above-average strikeout rates. Overall, the Rangers have become a team to target for punchouts as they have the seventh-highest team strikeout rate over the last month.
We should see Springs replicate the success he had in his first start against Texas earlier this season, where he struck out seven batters in five innings of work.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 Hits (-165)
|Yankees vs. Brewers||Yankees -180|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: -165||DraftKings|
The Brewers may have a tough assignment with Gerrit Cole on the mound this afternoon for the Yankees, but he has not been a problem for Christian Yelich. He has raked against Cole in his career, going 9-for-20 with three homers and two doubles.
On top of that, Yelich has been red hot of late, as over his last seven games, he’s hitting .310 with a .754 OPS.
While all the numbers are in our favor, what makes this prop most enticing is that we only need one base from Yelich for cash. Typically, hitters of his caliber will have their over one hit props very juiced or would have to get at least two total bases to hit on those props, but the matchup with Cole is giving us a significant edge.
Yelich has gotten at least one hit in 64.2% of his games played this year. That means that we have implied odds of -179 that he will get a hit today. Add in the excellent BvP numbers and how hot he’s been swinging the bat of late, and our chances are much higher than what this price will tell you.
Pick: Over 0.5 Hits (-165)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10