MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: 5 Picks, Including Chris Archer, Carlos Correa (Tuesday, August 30)
Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Archer (Twins)
- As part of the 15-game MLB slate on Tuesday, Tony Sartori is targeting five plays in two games.
- He begins in Minnesota by targeting two hitters and Chris Archer.
- Sartori then transitions to Citi Field, where he expects to pitchers to beat their totals.
Tuesday's MLB slate features 15 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Enter PrizePicks.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Tuesday, August 30
Chris Archer Over 3.5 Strikeouts
We have the second matchup of this three-game series, with the AL Central's Minnesota Twins hosting the AL East's Boston Red Sox.
Right-handed veteran Chris Archer is slated to take the mound for Minnesota, and should be a good candidate to back in this game, at least in the strikeout department.
Entering this outing, Archer has recorded at least four strikeouts in five of his last seven starts (71%). We should expect this trend to continue against Boston, a team that ranks just 25th in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitchers since July 1.
In fact, Archer has recorded at least four strikeouts in each of his last seven starts against the Red Sox. Through 93 career plate appearances against Archer, this current Boston lineup possesses a troubling 26.9% strikeout percentage.
This number is likely set so low because Archer has not performed well on the mound this year. However, even in his poor performances, he still racks up strikeouts.
Carlos Correa Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5
We are also backing a couple of Minnesota hitters in this contest, as they are slated to go against right-hander Kutter Crawford.
While he has a perfect name for an MLB pitcher, the results have been far from for Crawford.
Through 20 pitching appearances this season, Crawford is 3-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Crawford has been in particularly poor form recently, going 0-2 with a 9.31 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over his last four starts.
We should not expect too much positive regression from the right-hander, who possesses a .331 xwOBA, .258 xBA and .439 xSLG this year.
The first Minnesota hitter we are backing is Carlos Correa.
Correa enters this game in good form, going over this fantasy total in three of his last four contests (75%). We should expect this strong hitting to continue against Crawford.
When facing right-handed pitchers this season, Correa possesses a .270 BA, .416 SLG and .755 OPS. Based on his strong metrics, we should not expect regression from the shortstop, as he boasts a .362 xwOBA, .273 xBA and .482 xSLG.
While Correa has just one career plate appearance against Crawford, he is 1-for-1 with a single.
Luis Arraez Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5
The other Twins hitter we are backing in this contest is Luis Arraez. Perhaps one of the more underrated hitters in the American League, Arraez has been outstanding all season, as he boasts a .320 BA, .427 SLG and .814 OPS.
The Twins' leadoff hitter has absolutely torched right-handed pitching this season, seeing an approximate 34% jump in his splits (.344/.455/.863).
In his one career plate appearance against Crawford, he drew a walk and then grabbed a stolen base.
With how poor Crawford has been on the mound, we should expect this success to continue.
Andrew Heaney Over 5.5 Strikeouts
We have the first matchup of this three-game series between the NL East's New York Mets and the NL West's Los Angeles Dodgers.
Left-hander Andrew Heaney is slated to take the mound for Los Angeles, and should be a good candidate to back in this game.
Coming off two straight 10-strikeout performances, Heaney will look to keep the strikeouts coming against New York. In fact, Heaney has now recorded at least six strikeouts in five of his last eight starts (63%).
This trend should continue against a Mets team that struggles against left-handed pitching. Since July 1, New York ranks just 21st in the league in BA, 16th in SLG, 17th in OPS and 19th in wOBA when facing left-handers.
Through 54 career plate appearances against Heaney, this current Mets roster possesses a .163 xBA, .298 xSLG and .259 xwOBA. While Heaney basically only throws two pitches (4-seam and slider), each pitch boasts a whiff percentage north of 27% and BA south of .200.
Taijuan Walker Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 21.5
We are also going to back New York's projected starting pitcher in this game, right-hander Taijuan Walker.
While there is no denying Los Angeles possesses one of the best lineups in baseball, this total is way over-adjusted to that fact, and we are getting quite a generous number.
Through 22 starts this season, Walker is 10-3 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His strong season has the potential to keep rolling against the Dodgers, a team that Walker has held his own against in the last couple of seasons.
Over his last three starts against the Dodgers, Walker possesses a 3.44 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. It is always a challenge going against Los Angeles, but between his strong season and a decent track record against the Dodgers, Walker should have a shot at getting over this low total.
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