MLB Props Sunday | Odds, Expert Picks Today for Jesus Luzardo, Kevin Gausman, Merrill Kelly (May 21)
Via Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Jesus Luzardo #44 of the Miami Marlins delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning of the game at loanDepot park on April 28, 2023 in Miami, Florida.
- There's a full Sunday slate of Major League Baseball, and Doug Ziefel is ready to sweep the board again with a trio of pitcher props.
- He's betting three pitchers to exceed their respective player props, including Jesus Luzardo.
- Find his MLB player prop picks and analysis below.
We swept the board in style yesterday, and all three of our props were not much of a sweat. I've zeroed in on three starters for this Sunday slate who should have plenty of success. So let's not waste any more time and dive into the top MLB player props of the slate.
MLB Player Props for Sunday, May 21
Merrill Kelly Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130)
| D'backs vs. Pirates Odds | Arizona -126 |
| First Pitch | 1:35 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Merrill Kelly has quietly become the workhorse of the Arizona Diamondbacks staff. He's earned the right to stay out there as he enters this matchup with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
He has a favorable matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon. While the Pirates have shown more prowess at the plate than in years past, it's important to note that most of the damage they have done this season has come against left-handed pitching.
I deemed Kelly the workhorse because he has a long track record of working deep into games. Over his last 42 starts, he has gone over this total 69 percent of the time, which includes six of his nine starts this season.
Back Kelly to give Arizona another quality start today.
Pick: Kelly Over 17.5 Outs Recorded
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-135)
| Orioles vs. Blue Jays Odds | Toronto -200 |
| First Pitch | 1:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman will take the mound and face his old team this afternoon. Gausman spent the early years of his career in Baltimore, but his career catapulted once he left.
This season has been a prime example of just how elite he's become. Gausman has been annihilating opposing hitters this season, racking up 77 strikeouts in 55 innings pitched.
From a hit rate perspective, Gausman's 95th percentile Strikeout Rate has led him to surpass this total in seven of his nine starts this season. However, he's proven that he can top this total over a longer stretch.
Over his last 41 starts, Gausman has reached at least seven strikeouts 58.5% of the time. That gives us implied odds of -141.
While it's not the best line value, we have more than enough data to confidently back Gausman today.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts |
Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
| Marlins vs. Giants Odds | San Francisco -126 |
| First Pitch | 4:05 pm ET |
| Best Line | bet365 |
Yesterday we had Marlins starter Braxton Garrett go over his strikeout total against the Giants. We are going to target the Giants again today but with a starter who possesses even more strikeout upside.
Jesus Luzardo has finally looked like the top-tier starter many thought he could be upon making the big leagues. He enters his 10th start of the season with a 3.16 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 51 innings pitched.
He's in a tremendous spot to improve those numbers today against San Francisco. The Giants enter today's matchup with the second-highest Strikeout Rate in the majors. However, they are just .03 percent away from having the top spot in that category.
Miami's lethal lefty has shown he can rack up strikeouts in a hurry. Over his last 27 starts, he's gone over this total 63% of the time — that gives us implied odds of -170.
Not only do we have line value, but this is one of our top plays from our Action Labs projections. Luzardo is projected for 6.8 strikeouts this afternoon.
Pick: Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
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