MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Alex Cobb, Yordan Alvarez, Brandon Woodruff (Sunday, August 6)
Via Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Cobb #38 of the San Francisco Giants pitches in the top of the second inning against the Oakland Athletics at Oracle Park on July 25, 2023 in San Francisco, California.
Our weekend MLB player props bets got off to a hot start as we swept the board on Saturday. I've got a perfect weekend in our sights as I've found another three props that offer significant value on today's slate.
Let's dive in and see who we're backing in Sunday's top MLB player props.
MLB Player Props Today – Sunday, August 6
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases +130
|Astros vs. Yankees||New York -120|
|First Pitch||1:35 p.m. ET|
If it weren't for Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez would be the most feared hitter in the American League. Alvarez has absolutely been punishing the baseball as his Hard-hit Rate and Barrel Rate are among the top-three percent of the majors.
That is the type of hard contact you need to pick up extra bases, and this afternoon, he'll get to bring the thunder against Carlos Rodon. Rodon has not looked right in pinstripes, as he's giving up loads of loud contact and is not missing bats like he did in San Francisco.
Alvarez also hits lefties better than righties, so this matchup is ideal for him. This season, he's hitting .325 with a .998 OPS against left-handed pitching.
Alvarez is bound to crush one this afternoon, and with the short porch in Yankee Stadium, there's a good chance he could collect four bases with one swing.
Pick: Over 1.5 Total Bases +130
Brandon Woodruff Under 7.5 Strikeouts -148
|Pirates vs. Brewers||Milwaukee -205|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
Brandon Woodruff is making just his third start of the season as he's making his return from a lengthy IL stint. Woodruff has been on the shelf since early April with a shoulder injury and should be a big reason to temper expectations this afternoon.
It has been a long time since Woodruff pitched against big-league hitters, and now he'll be thrust into a divisional race where his club desperately needs him out there. However, Woodruff only went 4 2/3 innings in his final rehab start, and I doubt he'll be pushed more than that this afternoon.
That will limit his ability to rack up strikeouts, and him racking up strikeouts is no guarantee. The Pirates are just above league average in Strikeout Rate, with the 12th-highest percentage in the league.
Lastly, our Action Labs projections are in agreement with this under, as they have him slated for 6.8 strikeouts this afternoon.
Pick: Under 7.5 Strikeouts -148
Alex Cobb Under 6.5 Strikeouts -140
|Giants vs. Athletics||San Francisco -195|
|First Pitch||4:07 p.m. ET|
The San Francisco Giants will hand the ball to Alex Cobb today, and the veteran right-hander has been excellent this season. He enters with a 3.05 ERA and an elite ground ball rate.
However, Cobb has been fortunate to keep the ball on the ground this season, as he's due for some sizable regression. His xBA is .270, and his xERA is over a full run higher than his current ERA at 4.14.
The Athletics are a great matchup for Cobb as they hold the seventh-highest Ground Ball Rate in the majors, but they also have the fourth-highest team Strikeout Rate.
Cobb should have success today, but the favorable matchup has inflated his strikeout total. Cobb's Strikeout Rate is down two percent from last season, and he has not proven he can surpass this total, even in a plus matchup.
Cobb has gone under this total in 62.5 percent of his last 48 starts. That gives us implied odds of -166, which is the line value we need to solidify our edge.
Pick: Under 6.5 Strikouts -140