MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Chris Sale, Jordan Montgomery, More (Thursday, September 28)
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Montgomery
On Wednesday, we secured another winning night but were one Anthony Santander total base away from the sweep. Today, we go again with three more picks.
The Twins have already clinched the AL Central, but they are closing out the regular season strong as they have won three straight and seven of their last 10 games. Sonny Gray will look to help them complete a sweep of the Athletics.
The Orioles' magic number to clinch the AL East is down to one after a 5-1 victory over the Nationals. They got four runs off Patrick Corbin and may have success against another veteran left-hander tonight.
The Rangers took two of three from the Angels and their magic number to clinch the AL West is down to two. They will close out the regular season with four in Seattle after sweeping the Mariners in Arlington last weekend. Jordan Montgomery tossed seven shutout innings in the win last Saturday. Does he have six in him tonight?
MLB Player Props For Thursday, September 28
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Sonny Gray's strikeout line is set at 6.5 (+125, +120) tonight. Gray has 179 strikeouts in 180 innings this season, but he has struck out seven in just 11 of 31 (35%) starts. He has struck out six batters in six of his last 10 starts.
Gray had eight strikeouts in his last start and has the matchup to get there again today. The Athletics are fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Six of the last 10 starters they have faced have struck out six or more. Of note, Tarik Skubal punched out 10 while Luis Castillo and Bailey Ober each punched out eight.
We also have a narrative with Gray facing the team that made him a first-round pick in 2011. He spent the first four and a half years of his career in Oakland.
Gray has a 4.66 ERA in four career starts against his former team. However, I love him in this spot today. While Gray has a 2.80 ERA and 5.4 WAR overall, in day games he has a 1.77 ERA and .184 opposing batting average. He also has an opportunity to finish the season above .500 (8-8) with a win today.
The Athletics have lost 110 games, including eight of their last 10. Gray should dominate in this spot today. If he does so with Ks, this should cash with ease.
Pick: Sonny Gray 6 Strikeouts + Twins Win Parlay (+100 at FanDuel)
Chris Sale has 123 strikeouts in 97 2/3 innings this season. However, he is not as dominant as he used to be. He has a career-high 4.42 ERA, and his 3.61 xERA is the second highest of his career. However, maybe the real problem Sale has is facing the Orioles.
In three starts against the Orioles, Sale has allowed 19 runs (18 earned) in just 12 innings. He has allowed at least five runs in every start against them and has a 13.50 ERA. Against everyone else, Sale has a 3.04 ERA, which is not far off the 3.11 mark for his career.
Austin Hays, Aaron Hicks, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander all are hitting .333 or above against Sale. It makes sense, with all but Mullins being right-handed hitters. Hays, James McCann and Ryan Mountcastle — another lefty killer — all have two home runs against.
Tonight, we only need Sale to give up two earned runs. Sale can hit this line whether he gives up two runs in a quality start or gets lit up again. This line is heavily juiced, but I would take it at 2.5 as well.
Pick: Chris Sale Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-165 at DraftKings)
With Jacob deGrom out for the season and Nathan Eovaldi on the IL at the trade deadline, general manager Chris Young knew he would have to add some reinforcements to his rotation. One of his acquisitions was bringing in Jordan Montgomery from St. Louis, and the move has gone swimmingly well thus far. In 10 starts with the Rangers, Montgomery is 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.8 WAR.
Montgomery is averaging over six innings per start with the Rangers, and he also averaged exactly six innings per start in 21 starts with the Cardinals. He has hit this line in 22 of 31 starts this season. Montgomery has gone 5 2/3 innings in eight of his last 10 starts and 12 of his last 15.
Montgomery has pitched seven innings in each of his last three starts. That includes seven shutout innings against the Mariners last Saturday. The Mariners may have more success against Montgomery tonight, but we still only need 5 2/3 innings.
Additionally, given the stakes of this game, manager Bruce Bochy will want one of his best pitchers on the mound. With a quality outing tonight, Montgomery should not have much trouble clearing this line. We are getting great value for a line hitting at a 70-80% rate.
Pick: Jordan Montgomery Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-129 at Caesars)
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