MLB Props Today | Odds, Prop Picks for Pete Alonso, Gerrit Cole, Cody Bellinger (Tuesday, September 5)
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Cody Bellinger
When researching in preparation for this column, I try to identify the best value on the board to help us cash. However, sometimes it is as simple as trusting stars in good matchups and there are three I like today. Let's dive into the MLB player props I'm targeting for today's slate.
Last Wednesday, Gerrit Cole went six innings and struck out seven to pick up his 12th win of the season in Detroit. This time, he gets the Tigers on his home mound and he may go a bit deeper today.
Speaking of going deep, few leave the yard as often as Pete Alonso. Tonight, his Mets will be in Washington D.C. to take on the Nationals. He may be in line to hit another home run tonight as there are not many pitchers he looks to forward to facing more than Patrick Corbin.
After a few lean seasons with the Dodgers, Cody Bellinger is once again among the game's elite. With a WAR of 4.2, he is enjoying his best season since 2019 when he was the NL MVP. Tonight, he will look to continue his hitting streak against the Giants.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, September 5
Gerrit Cole has completed six innings in 10 of his last 11 starts. The lone exception was his rough outing against the Red Sox in which he lasted just four innings. He has pitched 6 1/3 innings in six of those 11 starts, completing seven in five of them and going 6 1/3 innings in the other to give him exactly 19 outs recorded.
Typically, I am skeptical when a pitcher faces the same team two starts in a row. However, as someone who closely follows both teams, I am acutely aware of how much Cole has dominated the Tigers throughout his career.
In 12 career starts against the Tigers, Cole is 8-1 with a 2.03 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 71 innings. In the last five years, Cole has three scoreless starts with 12 strikeouts against the Tigers. Two of those starts were at Yankee Stadium and in two of them, he went seven innings.
Speaking of Cole's strikeouts, his line today is 7.5 on DraftKings and I lean toward the over. At his current 27.1% K percentage, eight strikeouts implies that Cole will face about 30 batters, which looks about right considering the oddsmakers are projecting five hits and two walks as well.
If Cole faces 30 batters tonight, he likely goes at least 6 1/3 innings. With that mind in mind, I would rather take the value on his outs recorded compared to the -110 price for his strikeouts.
Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+135 at DraftKings)
Since his call-up in 2019, no one has hit more home runs than Pete Alonso. With two home runs on Sunday against the Mariners, Alonso now has 41 home runs this season. It is the third time in five years that Alonso has hit 40 home runs.
He also finished the COVID-shortened 2020 season with 16 home runs and on a 44-home run pace.
Alonso has five home runs off tonight's starter, Patrick Corbin, which is the tied with Aaron Nola for the most home runs he has hit off any pitcher. He is also 14-for-43 (.326) with two doubles, eight runs batted in and a 1.163 OPS against Corbin.
He is averaging a homer every 8.6 at-bats against Corbin compared to his career rate of a homer every 13 at-bats. Corbin has allowed 24 home runs to right-handed hitters and Alonso has 12 home runs in 124 at-bats against left-handed pitchers this season.
Alonso is +340 on DraftKings to hit a home run tonight and that is more than likely how he will get two total bases tonight. However, he also has 15 doubles and two triples this season. That means 55% of Alonso's hits this season have been for extra bases.
Alonso enters play tonight with a hit in each of his last four games and he has recorded two total bases in two of his last three games. Whether he takes Corbin deep again or doubles, I like his chances of getting two total bases tonight.
Pick: Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 at DraftKings)
Cody Bellinger is not going to win his second NL MVP award this year, but you would not know it based on how he has performed over the last two months. In July and August combined, he hit .360 with 13 home runs and 55 runs batted in.
He is not off to a bad start in September, either, as he is 8-for-21 (.381) with three home runs and seven runs batted in.
I thought about including Bellinger in yesterday's column, but I did not feel comfortable giving out the play, considering he entered the game 4-for-27 against Logan Webb. Bellinger went 1-for-4 (1-for-3 against Webb) with two runs scored. He went under his total bases line, but he did go over his hits + runs + runs batted in combo, which is how I am targeting him today.
Bellinger has a hit in each of his last six games and in nine of his last 10 games. He has had two hits in five of those games, which would clear this line today. He also has drove in a run in seven of his last 10 games. Curiously, DraftKings is offering a ton of value on Bellinger tonight as he is +150 for an RBI and +650 to hit a home run.
The Giants are going with Ryan Walker as an opener tonight and he has been impressive with an 2.16 ERA this season. However, Bellinger has been in the cleanup spot lately and with a 1-2-3 first inning, he will likely not face Walker at all.
If manager Gabe Kapler decides to attack Bellinger with a lefty, it may backfire as Bellinger is hitting .341 with eight home runs, 29 runs batted in, and a .982 OPS against left-handed pitching.
With a home run tonight, Bellinger will clear his total bases, RBI, and HR lines. However, he has cleared this line in five of his last six games. Batting in the middle of a hot Cubs offense on what will be a 90-degree day in Chicago, I expect Bellinger to make it six of seven tonight.
Pick: Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120 at DraftKings)
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