MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Jon Gray, Luis Castillo, More (Monday, September 25)
Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Luis Castillo
We have reached the last week of the regular season, but there are still races raging on in each league. Today, we have just four games and one of them needed to be rescheduled. However, I will be focusing on the AL West, where both games have massive implications on divisional and wild-card races.
The Rangers swept the Mariners over the weekend. They have now won five in a row overall and have a 96.9% chance of making the playoffs as they lead the AL West by two and a half games. Tonight, they will be in Anaheim to take on the Angels where Jon Gray will oppose Patrick Sandoval.
The sweep hurts Seattle's chances of winning the division, but they are still just a half game out of the last AL wild-card. That is because the Astros are also swept at home by the Royals. Tonight, they will begin a massive series in Seattle in a battle of aces.
I will be backing Luis Castillo in that one. He may get some run support from J.P. Crawford.
MLB Player Props For Monday, September 25
Patrick Sandoval has a 1.50 WHIP this season, partially due to the fact that he has walked 69 batters in just 141 2/3 innings. He has walked two batters in 12 of his last 15 starts and 19 of his 27 starts overall this season. Sandoval has also walked two batters in each of his last three starts against the Rangers over the last two seasons. That includes walking six Rangers in August.
Separately, over 1.5 walks for Sandoval is -190 on DraftKings, which is a lot of juice for a straight bet. At some point today, I expect this line to move to 2.5 and it would be playable at plus odds. He has walked three batters in seven of his last nine starts. In the meantime, we get plus money by adding Jon Gray to the mix.
Gray has walked 54 batters in 151 1/3 innings. He has walked two batters in 18 of 28 starts this season. You can bet over 1.5 for him at +145, but the Angels are just 26th in walk rate over the last month. However, Gray has walked a batter in each of his last two starts against the Angels, walking two against them on August 16th. He has also walked one batter in 25 of 28 starts this season and in nine of his last 10 starts.
Recently, Sandoval has hit this line in 80% of his starts while Gray has been 90% for the year. By combining them in a DraftKings same-game parlay, we still get plus odds. Each pitcher should pitch at least five innings, which means they will likely have at least 20 batters each to give us three combined walks.
Pick: Patrick Sandoval 2+ Walks/Jon Gray 1+ Walk Parlay (+100 at DraftKings)
Speaking of high hit rates, Luis Castillo has struck six batters in 23 of 31 starts this season and in 14 of 16 starts at home. Here's the thing: one of the starts that Castillo went under at home came against the Astros and he is 0-for-2 against the Astros. Houston presents a tough matchup as it ranks 27th in strikeout rate this season. However, it has been more vulnerable of late.
Excluding Sunday's game, four of the last seven starters the Astros have faced went over their strikeouts line. Cole Ragans, Jordan Lyles and Kyle Bradish struck out at least six. Two of the misses came when Ragans and Lyles made their second consecutive start against them in a week, which can lend itself to unders. In yesterday's game, the Royals used an opener, but Alec Marsh then struck out six in 5 1/3 innings.
This is a big game, especially considering Justin Verlander will be starting against him. In last year's ALDS, Castillo pitched seven innings and struck out seven in Game 2. He has pitched seven innings in each of his last three starts against Houston and has a 3.00 ERA in that span.
If Castillo is pitching well and manages his pitch count, it would not be a surprise if he pitched seven or eight innings. In that case, he would have not need to average a strikeout per inning to hit this line, although he does have a 9.9 K/9 this season. Castillo has hit this in 10 of his last 12 starts, striking out eight or more in five of them. I'll back him for six here.
Pick: Luis Castillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
Since joining the Astros in 2017, Verlander's starts against the Mariners have been feast or famine. In 17 starts against the Mariners as an Astro, Verlander has allowed two runs or fewer 11 times. In four starts, he has allowed four runs or more, including three with six. Clearly, I remember more of the dominant outings because I was surprised when I saw some of the numbers this Mariners lineup has against him.
Julio Rodriguez, Ty France and J.P. Crawford are all hitting .333 and above with over 20 plate appearances against Verlander. Rodriguez has been good to us, but I'm going with Crawford tonight. Over the last week, Crawford is hitting .320 with two doubles, a home run, four runs batted in and a .934 OPS.
He is 8-for-23 (.348) against Verlander with a double, a home run and a .966 OPS. He also has a hit in 12 of his last 13 games. A hit is all we are looking for here and it is great value considering these odds. A single hit is often -200 or -300 and usually better used as a parlay piece. However, in this spot, Crawford is coming in hot and he has great numbers against Verlander.
Recently, Crawford has been batting leadoff, which may be contributing to his hot streak. He is batting in front of Julio Rodriguez, which may give him a few more good pitches to hit. Another benefit is he may get five plate appearances and more chances to get a hit. At worst, a 1-for-4 game will do.
Pick: J.P. Crawford To Record a Hit (-150 at FanDuel)
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