MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Adam Wainwright, Justin Verlander (Tuesday, September 12)
Tim Heitman/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Verlander
We began the week with a winning day on Monday. However, Bo Bichette ruined the sweep, so we can always do better. Hopefully that comes today as I have three plays. Two of them are targeting veteran pitchers who have enjoyed illustrious careers, but who are trending in opposite directions.
Adam Wainwright will get the start in Baltimore tonight, which could be a rocky one for him. Meanwhile, Justin Verlander and his Astros will be looking to even up the series with the Athletics.
Meanwhile, the Braves and Phillies split their doubleheader yesterday. The Braves will hand the ball to their ace Max Fried tonight. However, that should put Trea Turner in a good spot.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, September 12
At this point, whenever Adam Wainwright starts, it is an automatic fade spot, whether that is with his own props or for the lineup he is facing.
In his last start against the Braves, he allowed eight hits, six earned runs — four via solo home runs — and three walks in 5 2/3 innings. Wainwright's ERA now stands at 8.19 and he has a 1.98 WHIP. He has allowed 20 home runs in just 89 innings.
After having faced the Braves, Wainwright gets baseball's other 90-win team tonight. In September, the Orioles are averaging 7.6 runs per game. They have scored 10 or more in four of their last five games. That includes 11 last night in game one of this series, with seven coming off starter Dakota Hudson.
Wainwright has struggled overall this season, but left-handers are hitting .371 with nine homers and a 1.097 OPS. Last night, Baltimore started Gunnar Henderson and Cedric Mullins in addition to switch-hitters Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander.
I would expect all of them to be in the lineup again tonight, and if I was targeting one for bases or a homer, I would go with Henderson. He hit his 25th home run last night and has homered in two of his last three games.
A Henderson home run early in the game could contribute to Wainwright giving up four earned runs tonight. He has allowed four earned runs in 11 of 19 starts this season. If he pitches five innings tonight, he will likely give up four again.
Pick: Adam Wainwright Over 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-115 at DraftKings)
Trea Turner hit .333 with nine home runs, 26 runs batted in and a 1.061 OPS in August. His mid-season turnaround has continued into September, in which he already has six home runs and 13 runs batted in while slashing .395 with a 1.347 OPS in just nine games.
Tonight, Turner has a tough matchup against Max Fried, who has a 2.70 ERA while averaging more than a strikeout per inning. Fried and Turner have been NL East foes for many years, whether Turner was a National or now as a Phillie, and Turner has owned this matchup. Turner is 13-for-32 (.406) with two doubles, a home run and a 1.035 OPS.
Turner has surpassed his career high with 25 home runs, but with just one in 32 at-bats against Fried, I would not expect one tonight. However, a long ball may not be necessary. Turner has two hits (+185 on FanDuel) in seven of nine games this month and 11 of his past 14 games overall.
Additionally, because he has been so hot, the Phillies have moved him back up in the lineup and in front of Bryce Harper, who also homered in game one yesterday. Turner is a formidable threat in his own right, but batting in front of Harper may give him a few more good pitches to hit. It only takes one bad one pitch for Turner to hit a double down the left field line and give us two total bases.
Pick: Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 at DraftKings)
If Justin Verlander had never pitched for the Astros, he likely was still going to the Hall of Fame. However, there is something completely different about him whenever he puts on that uniform.
With Houston, Verlander is 66-21 with a 2.33 ERA. He has won two of his three Cy Young Awards as an Astro, along with receiving a second-place finish. This season, he is 5-2 with a 3.43 ERA since rejoining the club at the trade deadline.
With the Astros, Verlander has earned a decision in 87 of 109 starts in his career and all seven this season. That is important because we will need him to pitch at least five innings to earn a win tonight. Verlander has pitched at least five innings in all of his starts with the Astros this season.
Tonight, Verlander gets the Oakland Athletics, who he has enjoyed a ton of success against both in the regular season and postseason. Verlander is 16-7 with a 2.49 ERA in 27 starts in the regular season against the Athletics. Tonight, the Astros are -320 on the moneyline.
That is partially because of Verlander, but A's starter J.P. Sears is 4-11 with a 4.51 ERA. He has allowed seven runs in 11 and 2/3 innings against the Astros and is winless in two starts against them this year.
The Astros should take a lead in this one in the first five innings. That would put Verlander in line for a win with a quality start. Coming off a loss, the value is on Verlander if you want to back the Astros tonight.
Pick: Justin Verlander To Record A Win (-110 at DraftKings)
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