MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Jesus Lazardo, Nick Pivetta (Saturday, September 23)
Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Boston Red Sox pitcher Nick Pivetta
Mother nature may derail much of our Saturday slate, but that hasn't stopped us from finding value in the player prop market. Let's dive into the top three MLB player props for Saturday's action.
MLB Player Props For Saturday, September 23rd
Jesus Luzardo has become one of the most electric left-handers in the game, as he's proven during his young career that he can dominate lineups with his three-pitch mix. What makes him so fun to watch is that he can look unhittable at times, which means generating strikeouts is a big part of his game.
This afternoon, he'll have the opportunity to rack up the punchouts as he'll toe the slab against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers come into this matchup with the 15th-highest strikeout rate in the majors.
Luzardo and the Brew Crew are quite familiar with one another, as they met just two weeks ago. Milwaukee got the best of Luzardo then, rocking him for six runs on 10 hits, but they also struck out five times.
That recent outing appears to have had a big impact on the line, as Luzardo's strikeout total is set at 5.5. However, that total is too low, as he's proven he can surpass that total on many occasions.
Luzardo has gone over this total in 64.6% of his last 48 starts. That gives us implied odds of -182, which makes the juice worth the squeeze on this play.
We targeted Nick Pivetta last Sunday against the Toronto Blue Jays. Our fade of him was successful as he stayed under 6.5 strikeouts, but now they've given us the same total at an even better price this week.
Much of the same data applies to this selection as well. This total is still far too high for Pivetta. He had implied odds of -195 going into last week's start, and that has only gone up since then.
This afternoon, he'll face the Chicago White Sox, who are a better matchup than Toronto, but we have an additional reason to fade him again today. Our Action Labs projections absolutely love this under.
His under is the highest-graded play on the slate, as they have him projected for just 4.6 strikeouts.
We are going to stay in the same game and target the other man on the hill in Boston this afternoon, Dylan Cease. It was not long ago that Cease flashed Cy Young potential as his wicked stuff dominated the American League.
However, his command issues have superseded his ability to generate swings and misses this season. He has not only walked more batters this season but made plenty more mistakes in the zone.
Cease's strikeout rate has dropped nearly 4% from last season, and that regression has created value on his price this afternoon. Cease has gone under this total in 18 of his 31 starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -138.
Add in the fact that he's facing a Boston lineup that ranks just 19th in team strikeout rate, and you have yourself a smash spot given the immense value on the price.
So fade both starters in Boston today.
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