MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Logan Webb in Mariners vs Giants
Via Andy Kuno/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants pitches in a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on June 28, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario.
Last week, New York Yankees right-hander Domingo German cemented his place in baseball history by throwing a perfect game. German still hasn't had such a great season and had an easy matchup for the perfect game on the road against the Oakland Athletics. He has a more challenging matchup tonight against the Baltimore Orioles, and consequently, there's an under bet that I believe has value.
The Minnesota Twins have their ace Joe Ryan on the mound tonight. He'll face the Kansas City Royals, a team that strikes out quite a bi, and Ryan should be able to take advantage of that.
Lastly, Logan Webb is on the mound for the San Francisco Giants tonight. The Seattle Mariners are another team that strikes out a lot, and I see value in this matchup as well.
MLB Player Props For Monday, July 3
Domingo German Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-123)
|Orioles vs. Yankees||Baltimore -112|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
German threw the 24th perfect game in MLB history in his last start, but all that matters is what he does tonight. German was shelled in both of his two starts before the start against Oakland.
Overall on the season, he's completed six innings in eight of his 15 starts. Most of those came before he was busted for having sticky stuff on his hand, and his results tanked after his suspension until throwing the perfect game against Oakland.
The Orioles are a much more difficult matchup for German, and he'll be pitching at Yankees Stadium, a much more difficult place to pitch than Oakland. I like Under 17.5 Outs Recorded here.
Pick: Domingo German Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (-123)
Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Twins vs. Royals||Minnesota -245|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
Ryan has gone over this number in two of his last three starts, and he has a 27% Strikeout Rate this season. The Royals are a great matchup for Ryan to have a ceiling game when it comes to strikeouts because Kansas City's projected lineup has combined for a 24.7% Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching this year.
Four players in the Kansas City projected lineup have at least a 25% Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching this season. At plus-money, this is a value bet on Ryan.
Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-124)
|Mariners vs. Giants||San Francisco -146|
|First Pitch||9:45 p.m. ET|
Logan Webb has a 24% Strikeout Rate this season, and he's exceeded this number in four of his last eight starts. The Mariners are a great matchup for him to rack up strikeouts tonight because Seattle's projected lineup has a combined 25% Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching this season. Six hitters in Seattle's projected lineup have at least a 24% Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Webb has tallied at least five strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts. Close only counts in horseshoes, but with the matchup against Seattle, Webb should be able to hit Over 5.5 Strikeouts tonight.