MLB Props Monday | Odds, Picks for Bryce Miller, Luke Weaver

Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.

Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.

Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Monday, June 12, including picks for Luke Weaver and Bryce Miller.

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MLB Player Props For Monday, June 12

Luke Weaver over 4.5 strikeouts (-105)

Luke Weaver is an impressively average starting pitcher. There's nothing about him that pops off the page — he's recorded 6.6 fWAR in almost 500 innings of MLB work.

Weaver is underperforming this season but is due for plenty of positive regression (6.27 ERA, 4.50 xERA). Pitching models don't love his stuff (94 Stuff+) but appreciate his command (104 Location+).

However, Weaver is managing to keep his strikeout and walk numbers in an effective range. He's punching out 22.3% of batters and walking only 5.3%, and his 17% K-BB rate would be his highest since 2019.

So, surprisingly, Weaver has cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in five of nine starts this season, including three of the past five.

But this handicap is more a fade of Kansas City. The Royals have the fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.7%) and second-lowest wRC+ (78) against right-handed pitching this season, and those numbers have been similarly gross in recent weeks.

Either way, between Weaver's competency and Kansas City's incompetency, the models love his strikeout prop on Monday. Our Action Labs system projects him for 5.3 strikeouts, while BallParkPal has him at 5.7.

Weaver's over 4.5 Ks at low juice is a solid look.

Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-105)

Action Labs Grade: 8/10

Bryce Miller under 4.5 strikeouts (+104)

I still think Mariners fans should be very excited about Bryce Miller, even after his recent blowup performances. His 70-grade fastball is holding up by Stuff+ metrics (126), his hard slider is forcing chases, and he's allowing almost no free passes (3.3% walk rate).

But with that said, where are the strikeouts?

Miller struck out 10 Athletics in his MLB debut, but he's struck out only 23 batters in 32 1/3 innings since, good for a lousy 17.4% strikeout rate.

The biggest thing about Miller as a prospect is that the development of a third pitch will ultimately decide his future. Whether it's his curveball or changeup, the righty needs something else to be effective.

But for now, Miller throws his fastball 69% of the time and one of his two sliders 23.6% of the time. He's thrown his changeup and curveball a combined 46 times and has forced exactly four whiffs with the pair.

There's a reason Miller's Swinging-Strike rate is hanging close to 9%, and there's a reason his CSW rate is in the 10th percentile of pitchers. Miller has only two offerings and doesn't have a true put-away pitch. It's hard to force big strikeout numbers that way.

As a result, Miller has stayed under 4.5 strikeouts in four of five starts this year against teams that are not the A's.

Meanwhile, Miami won't be an easy matchup. Over the past month and against right-handed pitching, the Fish have the fifth-highest wRC+ (112) and fifth-lowest strikeout rate (20.4%).

Our Action Labs Projections have Miller at 4.3 strikeouts today, while BallParkPal has him at exactly 4.5. I

If you're getting under 4.5 at plus money, this is a +EV line worth hitting.

Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (+104)

Action Labs Grade: 8/10

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