MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Nestor Cortes, Jon Gray, Julio Urias (Saturday, May 13)

MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Nestor Cortes, Jon Gray, Julio Urias (Saturday, May 13) article feature image

Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias of the Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Saturday's loaded slate of MLB games offers some value on pitching props.
  • One pitcher who stands out is Julio Urias of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down his MLB prop today and how to bet Urias below.

We're back for another incredible slate of baseball on Saturday. What makes it even better is that there are plenty of edges in the prop market that we can capitalize on. However, here I'll break down my top three as there are three men on the mound to target.

Let's find out who they are and how we're betting on them in today's top MLB props.

MLB Player Props For Saturday, May 13

Nestor Cortes under 17.5 outs recorded -115

Rays vs. YankeesRays -145
First Pitch1:05 pm ET
Best Linebet365

"Nasty" Nestor Cortes will take the mound for the Yankees this afternoon against the Tampa Bay Rays, but the odds are he won't be on the mound that long. After a campaign in 2022 where the lefty earned an All-Star appearance and had one of the best ERAs in the majors, 2023 has not gone nearly as smoothly.

Cortes enters this outing with a 4.74 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. While he is due for some positive regression, it's hard to believe that it will come this afternoon against the daunting Rays lineup. The Rays have been tearing the cover off the ball, and they have crushed lefties in particular as they lead the majors in wRC+ against them.

Lastly, Cortes has never been a guy who's worked deep into games often. This season he has finished the sixth inning just twice in seven starts, and that adds to a long-standing trend. Over his last 38 starts, Cortes has gone under this total in 23 of them.

That hit rate gives us implied odds of -153 that he'll go under again, and with one of the most difficult matchups in baseball in front of him, we're getting great value on the under.

Pick: Under 17.5 outs recorded-115

Jon Gray under 6.5 strikeouts -160

Rangers vs. AthleticsRangers -140
First Pitch4:07 pm ET
Best LineDraftKings

Last season, Jon Gray was solid as he proved how good he was once he escaped the unfriendly confines of Coors field. However, the Rangers' righty has appeared to regress quite a bit in 2023.

Gray's strikeout rate is down over eight percent from last season, and his walk rate has risen by two percent. Clearly, he's having some command issues, and he's been fortunate to get away with mistakes.

Although, even the Oakland A's have the potential to make him pay despite having the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the big leagues. His command problems have hurt his ability to put away hitters, as he's gone under this total in five of his seven starts this season.

However, history shows this total is far too inflated despite the matchup. In Gray's last 31 starts, he has gone under this total in 67.7 percent of them. That gives us implied odds of -209 that he'll go under again today. So the juice is worth the squeeze here.

Pick: Under 6.5 strikeouts -160

Julio Urias over 4.5 strikeouts -120

Padres vs. DodgersDodgers -145
First Pitch7:15 pm ET
Best Linebet365

Julio Urias is being disrespected with this total. This number is just far too low and completely unjustified when you look at what he's done and the team he'll be facing tonight.

LA's lethal lefty has been very solid this season despite two clunky outings. He enters this start with a 3.77 ERA and has increased his strikeout rate by nearly two percent from last season.

We've seen him go over this total in six of his eight starts, and this season has only added to his long track record of racking up strikeouts. Over his last 40 starts, Urias has gone over this total in 67.5 percent of them. This gives us implied odds of -207 that he'll go over tonight.

Lastly, when you factor in the matchup with the Padres, you see why the total is low. Urias' last start came against San Diego, and they hit him hard. He worked around eight hits and struck out just three while only surrendering two runs.

Although, Urias is due to get them this time around as the Padres hold the tenth-highest team strikeout rate in the majors. Take the over, as Urias will get his revenge tonight.

Pick: Over 4.5 strikeouts

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