MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Wade Miley, Jesus Luzardo, Justin Turner (Sunday, July 9)
Via Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Wade Miley #20 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches against the Chicago Cubs in the first inning at American Family Field on July 04, 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
We wound up in the green yesterday as the Phillies got Braxton Garrett, and Jose Ramirez played a big part in the Guardians' victory. However, yesterday is history, and we now have our sights set on finishing the final day of the first half of the MLB season on a high note.
Let's dive into today's top MLB player props, including picks for Wade Miley, Jesus Luzardo and Justin Turner.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, July 9th
Justin Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases -105
|Athletics vs. Red Sox||Boston -178|
|First Pitch||1:35 p.m. ET|
Would you look at that, Justin Turner has another solid matchup against a left-handed pitcher. Even at 38, Turner has proven he is still a threat at the plate as he's hitting .288 and is among the top-15 percentile in every expected statistic.
A big part of his success has come against lefties. He is hitting .301 against them with a .952 OPS. That OPS is nearly 200 points higher than what it is against right-handers.
On top of Turner's tremendous splits, he'll face a lefty in JP Sears who is due for some significant regression. Sears enters this start with an xERA of 4.63, which is much higher than his season ERA of 4.09. This is due to his horrible Barrel Rate, which ranks in the seventh percentile, and he is fortunate his Hard-hit Rate is not worse.
Turner is in an excellent spot this afternoon, and the conditions will help him as the wind will be blowing towards his pull side, which may help him play wallball with the Green Monster.
Jesus Luzardo Under 7.5 Strikeouts -121
|Phillies vs. Marlins||Miami -125|
|First Pitch||1:40 p.m. ET|
According to our Action Labs projections, this is the top play of the slate, and it has much more than projections to back it up. Jesus Luzardo has been the man for this Marlins rotation as he's pitched to a 3.32 ERA over 18 starts while striking out 120 batters in 103 innings of work.
However, while he may have a favorable matchup to keep piling up the strikeouts on paper, this total has proven to be a tad too high for Luzardo. He has gone under this number in 11 of his 18 starts.
This season feeds into a longer trend as he has gone under this total in 66.7 percent of his last 36 starts. That gives us implied odds of -200, which lends excellent price value.
Lastly, I mentioned our Action Labs projections love this under. Well, they have him slated for 6.3 strikeouts today.
Wade Miley Under 4.5 Strikeouts -160
|Reds vs. Brewers||Milwaukee -130|
|First Pitch||2:10 pm ET|
Last season the Cincinnati Reds were a team to target with strikeout props, as their young lineup was a staple in the top ten of Team Strikeout Rates. However, this season has been a different story as the Reds sit right around the league average with the 15th-highest Team Strikeout Rate in the majors.
That rate is good enough to fade the man starting against them this afternoon. Wade Miley will face the rejuvenated Reds today, and at age 36, Miley has become fully committed to pitching to contact, as his Strikeout Rate is the second-lowest of his career.
Oddsmakers are not giving the Reds enough credit here, as Miley's strikeout total is a number he's proven he can't surpass. He has gone under this total in 11 of 12 starts this season, and that extends into his last 21 starts as well.
Miley has hit the under at an 81 percent clip over his last 21 outings, which gives us staggering implied odds of -424 that he'll go under again this afternoon.