MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Zac Gallen, Chris Sale, Ranger Suarez (Sunday, September 3)
Via Rebecca Sasnet/Getty Images. Pictured: Zac Gallen #23 of the Arizona Diamondbacks adjusts his hat before throwing a pitch against the San Diego Padres during the top of the first inning of the MLB Game at Chase Field on August 12, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Arizona Diamondbacks snapped a nine-game losing streak with their 3-0 win over the San Diego Padres.
We were just one strikeout away from a sweep on Saturday, but as Meatloaf's famous song says, "Two out of three ain't bad." We're in a great spot to finish the weekend on a high note, and I've zeroed in on three more starters who will help us recover from some of yesterday's college football madness.
So, let's dive in and break down my top-three MLB player props and picks for this Sunday slate, including bets for Zac Gallen, Chris Sale and Ranger Suarez.
MLB Player Props For Sunday, September 3rd
Ranger Suarez Over 4.5 Strikeouts +132 (FanDuel)
We are going right back to the well here, as this will be the third Phillies starter I've targeted in this three-game series. Zack Wheeler went over his K prop, Nola went under by just one strikeout, and now it's Ranger Suarez's turn.
Ranger Suarez returns from the IL this afternoon, and the lethal lefty was looking very strong in the middle of the Phils' rotation. Suarez will enter this outing with a 3.88 ERA, and his uptick in strikeouts has paled a key role in his success.
Suarez's Strikeout Rate is up nearly two percent from last season, and that has led him to go over his total today in 10 of his 17 starts on the season. That 58 percent hit rate gives us implied odds of -138, which is tremendous value at the current price.
Add that the Brew Crew are 11th in team Strikeout Rate and that Suarez shouldn't be on any restrictions today, and you have yourself a solid play to add to your card.
Chris Sale Over 5.5 Strikeouts -115
Unfortunately, the last three years of Chris Sale's career have been riddled with injuries, and this year has been no exception. However, Sale will be taking the mound for the 16th time this season, and he's been nasty when healthy.
Sale's Strikeout Rate of 29.2 percent is down a bit from his career average, but it's still good enough to be amongst the top 15 percent in baseball. This afternoon, he will go up against a very green Royals lineup that sits 14th in team Strikeout Rate, as they strike out about one percent higher than the league average.
With Sale averaging well over one strikeout per inning, he has the opportunity to surpass this total within the first five innings. We have already seen him surpass this total in 12 of his 15 starts this season.
His 80 percent hit rate this season gives us staggering implied odds of -400 that he will go over again this afternoon.
Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts +112 (FanDuel)
We head to Chase Field in Phoenix to complete our trio of strikeout overs, as Arizona Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen toes the rubber. The right-hander has been phenomenal this season and will likely be a finalist for the NL Cy Young.
The 28-year-old enters this outing with a 3.32 ERA and has racked up 182 strikeouts in 173 innings of work. However, he does not have the easiest of matchups this afternoon as he faces the Baltimore Orioles, who have already proven they can do damage in this series.
On top of the danger littered throughout this lineup, the Orioles don't strike out much. They are just about league average in Strikeout Rate, which is good for 18th in the majors.
However, Gallen is not being given enough credit in this matchup, as the line is not an accurate representation of his likelihood to go over this total. Gallen has recorded at least six strikeouts in 60.7 percent of his starts this season.
That gives us implied odds of -154 that he'll go over today. That is too much line value to pass up, especially with it currently sitting at plus-money.
So back Arizona's ace.